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Inflation Ready to Rise
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 10/10/16

One of the key excuses for the Federal Reserve to hold off raising rates again and again, and to raise them very slowly, is that inflation remains extremely low.

Cut Spending to Grow Economy
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 10/3/16
Austan Goolsbee, former Chairman of President Obama's Council of Economic Advisors, was interviewed by Paul Gigot on Fox News this past weekend and asked about slow economic growth.

It's Still the Fed, And It's Not Magic
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 9/26/16
We hate to do this and we hope we don't put you to sleep so early in the week, but it's time to talk about monetary policy. Specifically, the "transmission mechanism" of monetary policy.

Rate Hike Looks Set for December
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 9/22/16
The Federal Reserve kicked the rate hike can down the road once again, but looks very likely to raise rates in December.

The Glass Half Empty
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 9/21/16
We get called perma-bulls, wrongly we think, because we were late to call 2008 a Panic, and because we've pushed back against the doom and gloom of the past 7 1/2 years. Time and again over the past several years, we've argued the Plow Horse economy would continue to grow.

Fundamentals, Not Headlines
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 9/13/16
The S&P 500 dropped 2.5% on Friday while the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 1.67%, the highest since June. You'll have to excuse us if we're unimpressed.

QE Is Not A Magic Elixir
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 9/6/16
In the Wild West, traveling salesmen sold Magic Elixirs that cured anything that ailed you. These days, the elixir is Quantitative Easing (QE) – it supposedly saved the world from Armageddon, lifted stock prices, drove down bond yields, and, according to at least one analyst, created the fracking boom.

Bull Market Has Further to Run
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 8/30/16
Now, the pessimists can't stop talking about profits. Both S&P 500 reported earnings and the government's economy-wide measure of corporate earnings are down 4.9% from a year ago.

Shut Out the Pessimists
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 8/23/16
You know the economy is getting better when the pessimists' theories on economic doom have been so wrong for so long they have to start recycling the old ones.

Beware of Popular Narratives
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 8/16/16
Narratives matter. These days, there are three main narratives impacting investors.

All-Clear on the Economy
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 8/8/16
Discussing the early (and healthy) Q3 job- and GDP-growth projections. Claiming that the Dog Days of Summer aren't so gloomy after all.

GDP Distortions
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 8/2/16
As recently as two years ago, more than 70% of Americans thought the US economy was still in recession. We're not sure what that figure is today – maybe pollsters are too busy with the election – but we'd bet it's still very high.

Despite a Wimpy Fed, September Hike on the Table
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 7/28/16
Mark your calendars for a rate hike on September 21st. Today's statement was much more hawkish than the June statement and Esther George, the Kansas City Fed Bank President, hopped back on the dissent train in favor of hiking rates by 25 basis points at today's meeting.

Fed Policy Not in Tune With Data
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 7/25/16
If the Fed were completely honest and transparent, its statement on monetary policy on Wednesday would be only two words: "We goofed."

Real GDP Accelerating
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 7/18/16
Forecasting economic growth from quarter to quarter is a humbling experience. Even when you get the trend right – and it's hard to beat our forecast of Plow Horse growth – there's always a quarter here and there that will throw you for a loop.

Monday Morning Outlook
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 7/12/16
How many times does Chicken Little have to wrongly squawk before investors get it? Yes, payrolls increased just 38,000 in May, and yes, British voters opted for political independence from the European Union. And, yes, Stock markets swooned. But, they will likely hit new highs this week. Just another head fake, brought to you by the bad news bears.

Watch Earnings, Not Fearful Forecasts
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 7/6/16
We wish we had a dime for every recession forecast we've heard in the past seven years. Like someone with hypochondria, fearful forecasters feel economic doom and gloom is right around the corner after every dip in economic data or shift in economic policy.

Uncertainty Not All Bad
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 6/28/16
If you listen to elite policymakers around the globe, they all seem to agree on one thing: the need to avoid "uncertainty." In their thinking the battle against uncertainty is a never-ending struggle, and if only the world were more certain the economy would be doing much better.

Brexit Is Freedom
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 6/27/16
The votes have been counted and it's "See EU Later" for the UK. As we wrote two weeks back, Brexit is Freedom, and our view hasn't changed.

Policy Stagnation
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 6/21/16
Back in the 1970s, President Jimmy Carter told us that we were just going to have to learn to live with less. The mood among establishment economists in the late 1970s was gloomy. The world was running out of oil; inflation was an odd phenomenon that was beyond our control. Sure, we could get lower unemployment, but only by letting inflation get even higher. Somehow, the US had lost its post-war economic mojo and just wasn't going to get it back.

Fed Projects Very Slow Path for Rate Hikes
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 6/16/16
At her post-meeting press conference Fed Chief Janet Yellen emphasized that it's important not to "overreact" to one or two reports on the economy. But that's exactly what the Fed did by refraining from raising rates at today's meeting and notably altering its projections for future rate hikes.

Why Does Japan Still Charge Taxes?
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 6/14/16
Investors often wonder why governments don't operate more like households, balancing their budgets year by year. Seems like good advice, right? If households can't live beyond their means forever, governments shouldn't either. But, what if your household could borrow for free? In other words, what if you were Japan!

Brexit Is Freedom
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 6/7/16
Earlier this year, NHL hockey fans were asked to vote for the captains of the four teams to face off in this year's new All-Star tourney. Three of the picks were players you'd expect: Jaromir Jagr from the Florida Panthers, Alex Ovechkin from the Washington Capitals, and Patrick Kane from the Chicago Blackhawks: True Gods of the Rink, who have scored hundreds of points.

Fed Teeing Up Rate Hike
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 5/24/16
Just a couple of weeks ago the odds of the Federal Reserve raising rates in June were slim to none. The federal funds futures market put the odds of a rate hike around 4%.

Forget About Macy's
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 5/17/16
Two simple questions: How many times have you bought something at Macy's in the past month? How many times have you bought something through Amazon over the same timeframe? We're guessing the answer to the first questions is once...maybe, while the answer to the second question is so many times you can't keep track.

Job Report Overreaction
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 5/9/16
The more we look at Friday?s jobs report the more we?re wondering what so many other analysts are so worked up about. It was like the pessimists won the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness at once. Trumpets, roses, and scare stories rocked many less informed investors. When so many stories are written that miss the most important points of economic reports and tilt toward a gloomy spin it?s hard to hear the truth through the noise.

Apple vs The Fed
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 5/2/16
Honest question: How much time does the Apple Inc. Board of Directors spend debating whether the Federal Reserve will hike rates once or twice more in 2016? We don’t really know the answer, but we would guess the best answer is zero.

Fed Nudges Toward a June Rate Hike
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 4/28/16
As we said back in March, mark your calendars for a rate hike on June 15. Today’s statement from the Federal Reserve signals that it intends to raise rates by 25 basis points at the next meeting, consistent with the projections it made in March that it would raise rates twice in 2016.

OPEC and the Ash Heap of History
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 4/26/16
Almost twenty-five years ago, President Reagan went to the British House of Commons and said “freedom and democracy will leave Marxism and Leninism on the ash heap of history.” Reagan chose his words carefully, using a phrase – the ash heap of history – very similar to the one used by the Russian Communist revolutionary Leon Trotsky against his political enemies. Within a decade, the Berlin Wall was no more and neither was the Soviet Union.

The Q1 Curse Strikes Again
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 4/18/16
Remember the recession of 2011, or 2014, or 2015? Each of those years started out with either a contraction or anemic first quarter economic growth. But despite these slowdowns, the US economy didn’t fall into recession. Instead, it was just more Plow Horse growth.

The Bears Get Excited Again
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 4/11/16
Since March 9, 2009, stock market bears have used every negative piece of economic data to argue their case. Last week they were hyperventilating over first quarter real GDP growth estimates. After recent inventory data, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model said annualized growth will be just 0.1% in Q1. It could be zero, or even negative.

Don't Short the Participation Rate!
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 4/5/16
Last Friday was an interesting day. For years now, the US has consistently added jobs and the unemployment rate has steadily fallen. But, the Pouting Pundits of Pessimism keep arguing that a falling unemployment rate is only because of weak growth in the labor force.

US Needs Sensible Debt Financing
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 3/28/16
Instead of imposing strict fiduciary rules on Wall Street, banks, investment houses, and financial advisors, the government should apply similar rules to the managers of the federal debt. This is particularly true because unlike the private sector – which faces tough market competition every day – the debt managers at the Treasury Department have a monopoly.

Money Misperceptions
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 3/22/16
1 – The Panic of 2008 was not caused by tight monetary policy. 2 – Zero percent interest rate policy (ZIRP) and Quantitative Easing (QE) did not save the US or global economies. 3 – Monetary policy in the US is getting looser as the Fed hikes rates, and, 4 – negative interest rates in Japan and Europe are not working.

Rates Hikes on the Way
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 3/17/16
Mark your calendars for a rate hike on June 15. Although the Federal Reserve cut its estimate of the most likely path for interest rates this year, it still projected two rate hikes for later this year, which suggests one hike in June and then one at the end of the year after the election.

Don't Fear Consumer Debt
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 3/15/16
For decades, the issue of debt has often dominated discussions of economics. It’s especially true these days with a $19 trillion federal debt and the fact that home loans were at the heart of the Panic of 2008. Lately, some analysts have fretted about student loans and many think economic growth in this recovery has been driven by borrowing.

TARP Was a Mistake, Not a Success
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 3/10/16
Today marks the seventh anniversary of the market bottom in 2009. Government claims that the Troubled Asset Relief Program, TARP for short, has been a massive success, saving the economy and generating $65 billion in government profits in the process.

Beware Trade-Recession Scare Story
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 3/8/16
Friday’s robust report on job growth ought to put the nail in the coffin on recent fears about a recession. Payrolls rose 242,000 and civilian employment, an alternative measure of jobs that includes small business start-ups, increased 530,000. In the past year, these two measures are both up approximately 2.7 million. Obviously, we’re not in a recession.

The Healthcare Dichotomy
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 3/6/16
The issue of runaway healthcare costs has been at the forefront of American politics for over a decade. We have all heard horror stories from the insured and uninsured alike: $1000 visits to the emergency room, $3000 MRIs, even trips to the pediatrician can give us sticker shock these days. To make matters worse, the accelerating retirement of the baby boomers promises to continue, if not exacerbate, this trend.

Currency Mayhem
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 3/1/16
With both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan moving to a Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP), conventional wisdom says the US dollar will continue to strengthen. After all, the Fed is tightening while everyone else seems to be working overtime to ease policy.

Velocity May Be Picking Up
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 2/22/16
One of the reasons the current economic expansion has been a Plow Horse rather than a Race Horse is the lack of monetary velocity, which is how fast money circulates through the economy.

No Sign of Recession in the Data
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 2/17/16
So far this year, the S&P 500 is down around 9% and has been down as much as 10.5%, a garden variety correction. But some pessimistic pundits, analysts, and investors are treating the correction as a harbinger of the recession they’ve predicted multiple times before, ever since the economy started to recover in mid-2009.

Want Faster Growth? Put the Jockey on a Diet!
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 2/8/16
The number one reason the US has a Plow Horse economy rather than a Race Horse economy is the growth in the size and scope of the federal government, which sits like a grossly overweight jockey atop an otherwise healthy thoroughbred.

Fed Not Going Away
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 2/1/16
Close your eyes (well, not literally). Imagine a huge manufacturing economy, in Asia, growing very rapidly. It became the second largest economy in the world, from ruin, in just a few short decades and produced 14% of global output. Now imagine it collapses.

Fed Waiting for More Information
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 1/28/16
After starting liftoff in December, no one really expected much out of today’s Fed meeting. And the Fed delivered exactly that, voting unanimously to do…nothing. But despite no action, their wording will get plenty of scrutiny.

Q4: Sluggish Growth, No Recession
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 1/26/16
The recent turmoil in the equity markets would make more sense if the US economy were headed for recession. But the economic data aren’t cooperating.

Fear is Overbought
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 1/20/16
The stock market is not the economy, and the economy is not the stock market. Nonetheless, many are convinced that the market correction of the past few weeks is a certain sign of impending recession. Never mind that China just reported 6.9% real GDP growth. Never mind that a barrel of oil costs less than $30, which means consumers are saving hundreds of billions of dollars per year on top of what the drop in natural gas prices has saved them.

Psuedo-Economics
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 1/12/16
To paraphrase the late Jude Wanniski – the history of man is a battle between the creation of wealth and the redistribution of wealth. Jude was a Supply-Sider, which means an economist who believes that entrepreneurship and supply (not demand) drives economic growth.

We Remain Positive About 2016
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 1/5/16
The Arab Spring is turning into an Islamic Winter, with some added cold wind, reminiscent of the Cold War – as Russia and Iran are seemingly aligned against a US-backed Saudi Arabia and Turkey. The intricacies of the religious, political, military, and historical events taking place are enough to give any normal person a headache. “Outrageously unstable,” is an understatement. Millions of refugees are voting with their feet.

Let?s Try Again: S&P 2,375
by Brian S. Wesbury and Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 12/29/15
The future exists to keep forecasters humble. And our 2,375 forecast for the S&P 500 at year-end 2015 has done just that. We are humbled, but we do tip our hat to Jim Paulsen at Wells Fargo Asset Management who said that 2015 would be a tough year for US stocks.
Results 601–650 of 854 found.