In 2023, the math of valuations suggests returns will likely be challenging as markets remain difficult to navigate.
The key takeaway from Wednesday’s FOMC meeting: despite encouraging inflation news, the Fed believes they have a long inflation fight ahead.
Will a dollar decline be good for stocks? It is an interesting question, given that during 2022 there was a significant non-correlation between the dollar and the stock market.
Since the beginning of October, the market has performed better as a “Fed Pivot” bull case pushed investors into the market
Recently, Bank of America discussed the “5-Lessons From The Nifty Fifty.”
After 12 years of a liquidity-fueled, Fed-induced bull market, are the markets set to start another “secular” bear market?
Following the weaker-than-expected October inflation report, stocks surged on hopes the Fed will “pivot” sooner than later. As we discussed recently, a “policy pivot” is not necessarily bullish but instead suggests more bearish market action will come first.
Is a “hard landing” coming, economically speaking, as the Fed continues its most aggressive rate hike campaign in 40 years?
With the midterm elections behind us, does the market outlook improve given a now gridlocked Congress? Historically speaking, such is the case.
There was a time when a large portion of Americans belonged to the “middle class.”
Since June, the market rallied on hopes of a “policy pivot” by the Federal Reserve.
Are the FANG stocks dead?
October started strong and then slid to new lows but managed to rally back toward the month’s end.
The Fed’s next crisis is already brewing.
Is a “lost decade” ahead for markets? Stanly Druckenmiller believes that could be the case.
Last week, the FOMC published its minutes from the September meeting, confirming its recent stance that Fed rate hikes will continue until inflation is vanquished.
“Recession Fatigue” is setting in as consumers struggle under rising interest rates, high inflation, and a declining stock market.
While the Fed continues to hike rates to combat high inflation levels aggressively, history shows that deflation will become a more significant threat when something “breaks” in the financial or credit markets.
Is this the “Superbubble’s Final Act?” Such was a fascinating piece of commentary recently from Jeremy Grantham, famed investor and co-founder of GMO.
The strong dollar remains a risk to corporate profits and asset prices as the impact on the global economies grows.
“Market instability” remains the most significant risk to central banks globally.
A recent MarketWatch article discussed JPMorgan’s Chief Operating Officer, Daniel Pinto, views about a coming mild recession.
The latest rate hike announcement by the Fed sent stocks tumbling to the year’s lows. While last week’s market action was brutal, the good news is the markets are set up for a rather significant short squeeze higher.
The massive debt levels provide the single most significant risk and challenge to the Federal Reserve. It is also why the Fed is desperate to return inflation to low levels, even if it means weaker economic growth.
Stocks are far from cheap. Based on Buffett’s preferred valuation model and historical data, return expectations for the next ten years are as likely to be negative as they were for the ten years following the late ’90s.
Asset bubbles have been prevalent throughout history.
Recently, the Biden Administration started taking victory laps on deficit reduction.
At the Jackson Hole Summit, Jerome Powell made it clear the Federal Reserve remains focused on combatting inflation despite recession signals rising in tandem.
Last year, I wrote an article discussing that 2022 earnings estimates were too optimistic given the impending reversal of the economic “Sugar Rush” of massive liquidity injections.
Small business sales are the lifeblood of the economy.
The “Rule Of 20” says the “bear market” may just be resting despite much commentary to the contrary.
Buy stocks in a bear market.
The bear market is over.
Jerome Powell isn’t Paul Volker, and this isn’t 1982.
Economic slowdown but no recession!
Pulling forward growth over the last decade remains the Federal Reserve’s primary tool for keeping financial markets stable while economic growth rates and inflation remained weak.
Jim Cramer recently stated it will be time to buy stocks when the Fed pivots.
Every investor must learn the one investing lesson in surviving the long game: how math works.
As expected, Wall Street wins again.
No recession.
ESG underperformance will be the strategy’s eventual undoing.
MMT Policy (Modern Monetary Theory), the grand experiment, was tried following the pandemic-driven shutdown of the economy.
Basic economics says that companies can only set prices at a level where the current supply will meet demand. Moreover, looking at prices in a vacuum is also very misleading because it doesn’t account for changes in the firm’s input or operating costs.
The “Bullwhip Effect” has gotten the media’s attention as of late. However, the causes, effects, and consequences to the market and monetary policy are not well discussed.
The “Fear Of Missing Out,” or “F.O.M.O.” is a centuries-old behavioral trait that began to get studied in 1996 by marketing strategist Dr. Dan Herman.
An earnings recession is coming as the Fed hikes rates which accelerates an economic recession.
“HODL,” an original misspelling taken on as a badge of courage by cryptocurrency investors, spread to “Meme stocks” during the runup in 2020 and 2021.
An oil price and energy stock price reversion may be starting.
NFIB signals a recession is coming…again.
An “economic hurricane” is coming.
