The S&P opened Friday below Thursday's close and rose until about midday when it leveled off. It closed with a 0.68% daily gain and a 0.38% weekly loss after Wednesday's largest daily loss since September.
Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 144.5, down 0.2 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 6.25%, up from 6.16% the previous week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 5.0, down from the previous week and has been declining for 14 consecutive weeks.
RecessionAlert has launched an alternative to ECRI's Weekly Leading Index Growth indicator (WLIg). The Weekly Leading Economic Index (WLEI) uses fifty different time series from these categories: Corporate Bond Composite, Treasury Bond Composite, Stock Market Composite, Labor Market Composite, Credit Market Composite. The latest index reading came in at 24.0, up from the previous week.
The latest Manufacturing Index came in at 38.8, up from last month's 22.0 and has been positive for ten consecutive months. The 3-month moving average came in at 31.2, down slightly from 32.7 last month. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion. The Six-Month Outlook came in at 34.8, a decline from the previous month's 45.4. Today's 38.8 headline number came in above the 19.5 forecast at Investing.com.
The Latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for April increased to 126.9 from 126.5 in March and is currently at an all-time high. The 0.3 percent month-over-month gain matched the increase forecast by Briefing.com.
Today's seasonally adjusted 232K new claims, down 4K from last week's number, was better than the Investing.com forecast of 240K.
As a result of the housing and mortgage crisis of the Great Recession, economists have been paying more attention to the liabilities portion of household balance sheets. Among the New York Federal Reserve Board's many economic reports is the Household Debt and Credit report, which is released quarterly with data going back to 2003.
We've updated this series to include Friday's release of the Consumer Price Index as the deflator and the April monthly update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $37,003, down 12.9% from 44 years ago.
Over the long haul the two series offer a compelling study of trends in residential real estate. Here is an overlay of the two series since the 1959 inception of the Starts data and the Permits data, which began being tracked a year later. The monthly data points are preserved as faint dots. The trends are illustrated with 6-month moving averages of data divided by the Census Bureau's mid-month population estimates.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for April new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.229M was a decrease from a revised 1.260M in March and below the Investing.com forecast of 1.270M. Figures going back to January 2015 were revised.