As strikes on Iran continue and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, it’s clearly too early for market watchers to stop thinking about geopolitical risk.
LPL Research reviews 2025 market predictions: key wins, misses, and lessons across equities, fixed income, and the U.S. economy.
Corporate America delivered another exceptional earnings season, with third-quarter S&P 500 earnings growth tracking over 13% and achieving one of the highest beat rates ever recorded. Companies successfully adjusted to shifting macroeconomic pressures, including tariffs, as expectations continued to rise. The impressive results were bolstered by robust revenue growth and significant investment from mega-cap technology firms.
As 2025 nears its final 100 calendar days, market focus is already beginning to turn forward and attempt to reconcile what market drivers could remain in place, and what could change in the first year of the new half-decade. While not an exhaustive list, here’s some of our early keys to 2026.
This bull market has been on quite a run. The S&P 500 is up 35% since its April 8, 2025 year-to-date low, and up over 92% since it began on October 12, 2022, excluding dividends.
Sunday, October 12 marked the third anniversary of this bull market. Fast forward three years, and this bull market is still going strong. But will it continue? You may be surprised to know that bull markets lasting three years tend to keep going for a while.
We believe corporate America will follow up an outstanding second quarter earnings season with another good one in the third quarter.
With the third quarter (Q3) behind us, we decided to conduct a deep dive into the key factors that shaped Q3 performance. Below, we’ve highlighted what we believe to be 10 of the key takeaways.
With just a week remaining until the highly anticipated September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Wednesday’s wholesale inflation print and Thursday’s consumer inflation results for August are the last major hurdles lying between the expected resumption of the FOMC easing cycle.
LPL Research sees bull market strength as stocks follow recovery trends, with AI growth, Fed cuts, and economic resilience driving upside.
Second quarter earnings season, which winds down this week and next, has met some of the highest expectations. Strong beat rates, big upside earnings surprises, and increases in estimates during the past four weeks were consistent themes that gave investors very little to complain about.
We have been pleasantly surprised by how well stocks have handled the sharp increase in tariffs. Since the market low from the early April tariff scare, the S&P 500 Index has gained more than 28%.
It’s a bull market for pessimism right now. We know the list of concerns is long and includes an aggressive Federal Reserve with a spotty (and that’s putting it kindly) track record of navigating a soft landing, stagflation, ongoing China lockdowns, disrupted supply chains, overly optimistic earnings estimates, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, and the latest—failing crypto firms.
