Renewed Eurozone Concern as Liquidity Injections Dont Solve Solvency Woes
As investors recognize that the ECB's long-term refinancing operation is doing nothing to address the regions underlying solvency problems. Resolving those problems through monetary policy is complicated by the large disparities in economic growth and inflation across the eurozones economies, rendering both loosening and tightening inappropriate for certain parts of the region. As a result, Standish remains cautious about the European economic outlook and fears that renewed uncertainty over Europes fiscal stability could lead to another bout of global financial market volatility.
European Update: Volatility Will Remain High Amidst Rating Agency and Political Uncertainty
S&P downgraded nine of the 16 Euro area countries on credit watch negative. Germany is now the sole AAA country with a stable outlook. The primary drivers of the downgrades were reduced political and external scores. The near-term market impacts have been relatively muted, as the downgrades were not as bad as investors may have feared. However, the negative outlooks across the region and potential for further downgrades. Within the Euro area, further volatility is likely to be reflected in lower German yields relative to other Euro area bond markets.