Charting the Course for COVID19: Market Implications of the Pandemic’s Estimated Daily Growth Rate
We analyze March’s stock market decline as pricing in the first-order effect of higher risk premiums associated with COVID-19. We produce a simple model that shows that the estimated daily growth rate of COVID-19 forecasts stock returns and discuss market implications.
What the Current U.S.-Iran Tensions Could Mean for Asset Allocation: Lessons from past Conflicts
We analyze the historical reactions of various assets to past U.S. military actions in the Middle East to provide insight into what the current U.S.-Iran tensions may mean for markets in 2020. We examine the S&P 500, crude oil, gold, U.S. dollar, and U.S. 10-year Treasuries.