JS Asset Management

The great recession has ended and the recovery appears more robust than generally forecasted. The U.S. gross domestic product grew 5.6 percent in the fourth quarter, the fastest quarterly pace since 2003. The economic consensus forecast for 2010 of less than 3 percent growth is likely too low and we believe could be closer to 4 percent. While productivity generally improves after the end of a recession, the surge over the last three quarters of 7.4 percent was the highest in more than 30 years. This is yet another sign that corporate earnings leverage will be great.