Bear Market Cycles and Valuations
by Emil Zamarelli,
The subject for this year's investment letter is long term bull and bear market cycles in equities. I will argue that these long term cycles repeat themselves and have similar characteristics in terms of their length and their excesses of optimism and pessimism. These excesses translate into exceedingly high and low market prices at their peaks and troughs. I believe that it is now a good idea to limit your exposure to the stock market. Cash and short term bonds issued by the highest quality governments and corporations are called for.