ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update

Next week's update will not be posted until Monday, 8/15.

Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts the WLI at 143.8, down 0.2 from the previous week's figure. The WLIg is at -13.4, down from last week and the WLI YoY is at -7.14%, unchanged from last week.

Here's an excerpt from a recent ECRI article:

With real GDP falling again in Q2 2022 after declining in Q1 2022, many will likely conclude that we’re in recession. In fact, the data show that, over the past 75 years, there’s been a U.S. recession every time real GDP has fallen for two consecutive quarters (in Q2 1947 and Q3 1947, real GDP did decline without a recession). More here

Below is a chart of ECRI's smoothed year-over-year percent change since 2000 of their weekly leading index.

WLI since 2000

Appendix: A Closer Look at the ECRI Index

The first chart below shows the history of the Weekly Leading Index and highlights its current level.