Monetary Dilemma

Perception vs. Benchmark
The Case for Cuts
Four and Four
DC and Writing Dilemmas

Leaders take a lot of criticism. In fact, that’s part of the job. Presidents, governors, CEOs, football coaches, other top decision makers and even your humble analyst all have to answer for what happens on their watch—even when it’s not their fault. Then-general Dwight Eisenhower prepared a letter for release in case the 1944 Normandy landing failed, placing all blame on himself. Which, I suspect, he knew would happen anyway.

This applies to Federal Reserve leaders, too. I’ve given them a lot of grief (deservedly so but less these last two years) but I also don’t envy them. They have to make high-stakes decisions with unreliable data, within constraints set by politicians and long-ago predecessors. The “right” choice is rarely available to them. It’s kind of remarkable anyone is willing to do the job.

Now the Fed is at an important turning point. Having tightened to control inflation, they have to decide what’s next. The first question is whether inflation is truly under control. If it is, then the next question is whether the policy that controlled it is having other undesirable effects. And if that’s the case, what can/should the Fed do about it?

These tough questions will be today’s topic. They will also, let me add, be high on the agenda of our virtual Strategic Investment Conference which is now less than a month away. I can confidently say this year's SIC will be the best ever.

I will soon be doing a full presentation of our speaker list as we get closer to finalizing it, but let's look at a few highlights. We will cover the full spectrum on cycles and government debt with Neil Howe, George Friedman, Peter Turchin, and your humble analyst. This topic is extremely important as it sets the background for everything on the economic, political, and social agendas. (I am finishing up a book on the topic!)