Storm Cycles

Sequential Muddling
Mutual Loathing
“The Dark Side of Meritocracy”
The Over-Production of Elites in China
The Debt Supercycle/The Great Reset
Nashville, Cancun, Memphis, Dallas, Europe and Paris

In economics we often talk about cycles. “Business cycle theory” is an entire academic sub-field whose basic idea is that economic history really does repeat itself. Not in every detail, of course, but as a recurring sequence of expansions and recessions.

More broadly, some historians think human civilization goes through cycles. Often, they base this on the fact life itself is a cycle. People are born, grow up, reproduce, grow old and die. Then their children do the same. Our cycle of existence spawns other cycles.

Last week I talked about crises and how they are uncomfortable but create the conditions for growth. I noted how this also happens in nature: Wildfires clear out the underbrush that lets new life flourish. Do those count as “cycles?” I think so, but they’re less regular. Nature has a seemingly larger randomness element. But there appear to be “rules” even in the randomness.