A Tale of Tail Risks

One month in, the year 2020 has brought an outsized volume of news. An epidemic scare and a manufacturing slowdown are weighing on our forecast in the near term, while the mix of long-run risks has not lightened.

Fundamentally, the economy continues to grow, with low unemployment and calm inflation. Economic resilience despite uncertainty was a significant theme of 2019, a trend we expect to continue in the year ahead. But challenges to growth are already accumulating, and the heavier balance of risks is weighing on our 2020 outlook.

Key Economic Indicators

USEO - 02/10/20 - Chart 1