Yield on 30-Year Treasuries Tumbles as Curve Continues to Flatten

This week’s aggressive repricing in U.S. Treasuries is going global, with long-end borrowing costs from Germany to the U.K. sliding as traders brace for central banks to quell fears over rising inflation.

The yield premium on 30-year German bonds over five-year equivalents narrowed to the lowest since March on Friday, while a similar gauge in Britain fell to levels last seen in January. It follows a plunge in long-term Treasury yields on Thursday, which sparked the biggest two-day flattening of curve since March 2020.

The moves come after Federal Reserve officials on Wednesday signaled they could tighten monetary policy sooner than expected, boosting the appeal of longer-dated debt, which has borne the brunt of this year’s bond selloff on fears that inflation might become unmoored.

While most major central banks are further behind in telegraphing an eventual end to stimulus unleashed during the pandemic, fierce shifts in the world’s biggest debt market tend to ripple globally.

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“This is all consistent with markets seeing the Fed having provided cover for other central banks to tighten earlier,” said Antoine Bouvet, head of European rates strategy at ING Groep NV. “We’re still on track for the first hike by the Bank of England in early 2023 I’d say. The Fed’s tone has probably reinforced the market’s conviction there.”