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Results 51–100
of 147 found.
ProVise Bullets
by Team of ProVise Management Group,
When helping people with retirement and cash flow planning, we often have some detailed conversations concerning the costs of health care. Some retirees have a misconception that somehow, because of Medicare, things are free. Anyone who is a part of Medicare knows that is simply not the case. Not only do you pay premiums for Parts B and D, but there are some significant co-payments and deductibles attributable to Medicare, as well. Health care costs are estimated to be over $325,000 over the course of retirement for a 65 year old couple.
ProVise Bullets
by Team of ProVise Management Group,
There was much to cheer about in the January jobs number, with unemployment dropping to 8.2% and 243,000 jobs being created; almost 90,000 more than was originally projected. On top of that, the government revised the November and December numbers, adding another 60,000 jobs to those two months, bringing the total number of people employed during 2011 to around 1.82 million. But, among all the good news that both sides of the political arena jumped all over, there remain some unpleasant facts.
ProVise Bullets
by Team of ProVise Management Group,
If you dont think there is a huge disconnect between government spending and government revenues, perhaps some of the following facts will convince you. This information is important given discussions in Congress during the month of February regarding extending the payroll tax holiday to the end of the year, and how that will be paid for. For the fiscal year ending Sept 30, 2011 government spending equaled 24% of GDP, taxes collected were 15% of GDP. Combine the two and you can understand why the country is moving in the wrong direction.This cannot be sustained and it will require sacrifice.
ProVise Bullets
by Team of ProVise Management Group,
The season for predictions is behind us and we thought it might be fun to come up with a few predictions that go out on a limb, both positively and negatively. Here are five semi-wild, but possible predictions for 2012. 1: Jobs, especially manufacturing jobs, return to America. 2: Switching from the economy to politics, the Republicans will hold a majority in the House, although they will lose some seats. 3: Turning to the world, the euro survives in spite of its being badmouthed over the past several months, and it strengthens late in the year. ...
ProVise Bullets
by Team of ProVise Management Group,
The year 2012 is upon us and looms large for a number of different reasons. Within the next few days, the first of the Presidential primaries will begin and by early November we will know who our next President is and who controls Congress, along with many State Houses. Some astrologists believe this is the Age of Aquarius and according to the Mayan calendar, December 21st will be the end of time, or as some prefer to think of it (ourselves included) the beginning of a new age. Maybe the astrologists and Mayans have something going.
ProVise Bullets
by Team of ProVise Management Group,
The third quarter of 2011 produced negative returns for just about every asset class in every country in the world. Although the markets have rebounded over the past two and a half months, the net worth of each American household fell, on average, by 4% during those 90 days. This was the largest drop since the fourth quarter of 2008 which marked the beginning of the Great Recession. While the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers was the so-called catalyst for the decline in 2008, the decline from July 1st to September 30th this year was largely based on the fears of a default by the US government.
ProVise Bullets
by Team of ProVise Management Group,
2012 may be the year that banks get back into the business of actually lending money. While some of the banks that avoided the real estate fiascos have been in a position to lend money to the most highly qualified borrowers, we should see a significant increase in lending by all banks during 2012. Like consumers, big banks spent the last few years repairing their balance sheets. They now need to find ways to deploy their capital other than using it for a write-off. Interest rates are about as low as they can go, especially for high quality borrowers.
ProVise Bullets
by Team of ProVise Management Group,
October is a month that has provided much drama in the stock market through the years and this year is no exception. The S&P 500 was up over 11%, which is the second best October in history, and ended a five month losing streak. The S&P 500 was up 17.1% from October 3rdthrough October 28th. Those 19 days were better than 9 of the last 11 calendaryears. Do you see why market timing is virtually impossible?
ProVise Bullets
by Team of ProVise Management Group,
Low interest rates have certainly hurt savers, even more so those who live on a fixed income. The current bubble in bonds will eventually pop, and many people will be surprised. But this ProVise Bullet is not about the risk in bonds today. Its more about the fact there is some good news as it relates to interest rates. First, mortgage rates are near an all-time low. A 30 year mortgage loan is available at an interest rate slightly above 4% and 15 year mortgage loans have been quoted at just a little under 3.57%. Even the IRS is getting into the act.
ProVise Bullets
As the Congressional Committee of 12 meets to figure out what to do about spending and taxes, we thought you might find the following of interest: Again, some people think it would be a good idea to distribute purchasing power by taking more millions of citizens off the federal income tax rolls entirely. While everybody wants relief from high taxes, there are at least two things wrong with this proposal.
ProVise Bullets
by Team of ProVise Management Group,
In our opinion, Congress and the President need to do two things. The first is to develop a long-term, permanent solution to the Tax Code and to remove regulations that are, at best, postponing the decisions of employers to hire, and in some cases, driving jobs overseas. Heres what we would do if we were leaders in Congress: we would identify each and every one of the parts of the package where there is common agreement and pass them as quickly as we possibly could.
ProVise Bullets
by Team of ProVise Management Group,
In the widely anticipated comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke at Jackson Hole, WY, he acknowledged that, for a number of reasons, the recession was deeper than originally thought. The recovery has been more modest than he would like, notwithstanding the fact that we have had nine months of economic growth since the recession ended, albeit anemic growth. Unfortunately, the media focused on more of the negative parts of his comments. Fortunately, investors heard optimism. Why did investors see something different than the media?
ProVise Bullets
by Team of ProVise Management Group,
Volatility set a record last week when, for the first time in the Indexs 115 year history, the Dow Jones moved by more than 400 points for four consecutive days. The Index was down 635 points on Monday, up 430 points on Tuesday, down 520 points on Wednesday, and up 423 points on Thursday. We all know that the value of the underlying businesses did not change drastically even day by day. Jason Zweig said it well in his book, Your Money and Your Brain: In the short run, a stocks price will change whenever someone wants to buy or sell it and whenever something happens that seems like news"
Special ProVise Bullet
It isnt different this timeits simply a different story. On a fundamental level we believe there will be continued growth in the economy and thus in the market. Maybe the growth will not be as great as most of us would like, but there is still growth. Our crystal ball cant tell us when the market will find a bottom, but it will find it and then recognize the fundamentals in place. Only the investor who panics and sells will, at the end of the day, lose money.
ProVise Bullets
by Team of ProVise Management Group,
Recently, the Tax Court affirmed a tax deduction a family had taken for the 24 hour supervision needed for an elderly family member. Caregivers were hired-even though they were not licensed healthcare providers-and the family took a tax deduction for the cost of these caregivers. The IRS denied the deduction, but the Tax Court affirmed it. The Court went further by stating that the costs of maintenance and personal care services could qualify as a medical expense if a healthcare professional certifies that at least two of the six activities of daily living cannot be done without assistance.
ProVise Bullets
With all the conversation about healthcare reform, sometimes we lose focus on what law is currently in effect. For those with Health Savings Accounts (HSAs), the annual cap on deductible contributions will be slightly higher in 2012, going to $6,250 for an individual with family coverage and to $3,100 for those insuring a single life. Anyone born prior to 1958 can put in an extra $1,000. On the other side of the equation, the limit on out-of-pocket costs for deductions, co-payments, etc., will rise to $12,100 for family coverage and to $6,050 for individual coverage.
ProVise Bullets
by Team of ProVise Management Group,
There are a little over 30 days left before the U.S. will technically default on its debt. Congress is still playing Russian roulette with the economy and the stock markets. We have seen what this type of Russian roulette has done to the stock market over the past eight weeks. The Republicans have talked about tax cuts and spending cuts, while the Democrats have pushed for increased taxes and smaller spending cuts. Although this would have been a perfect time for a serious debate on tax reform at both the individual and the corporate level, both of these seem to have been pushed to the side.
ProVise Bullets
by Team of ProVise Management Group,
The more things change, the more they remain the same. That trite expression has been applied to many different things. We are applying it to what may be an early stage tech ?bubble?. Almost every investor is familiar with LinkedIn coming out at $45 per share then jumping to $120 per share in the first day of trading before settling in at $90 per share. Other examples abound. The very popular Facebook is estimated to be worth $76 billion. We have to admit that at least some of the tech companies are actually making money today with viable ideas, but the valuations still seem a bit absurd.
ProVise Bullets
by Team of ProVise Management Group,
As the first of the Baby Boomers begin to turn 65, they are being greeted with some bad news concerning Medicare and Social Security, especially since they hope to enjoy a longer time in retirement. Social Security is now scheduled to be exhausted by 2036, a year earlier than was projected last year. In addition to longer life spans, the 2% reduction in Social Security tax this year was a major factor in this updated information. As bad as things are for Social Security, things are worse for Medicare, which is projected to be bankrupt by 2024, five years sooner than was projected last year.
ProVise Bullets
The news of Osama bin Laden?s death was cheered around the world ? especially in the United States. Although it took 10 years to bring him to justice, his death brought a sense of victory in the war against terrorism. Our thanks go out to our intelligence gatherers, who diligently compiled leads from a variety of sources, and the team of Special Forces who carried out the risky mission inside Pakistan.
ProVise Bullets
by Team of ProVise Management Group,
Herb Meyer said during tough economic times family size tends to shrink because people tend not to get married, and if they do they try to avoid having children because they can?t afford them. It was only a few days after this talk that we read that the birth rate in the U.S. from 2007 through 2009 fell 4%, which was the single largest drop in any two year period since the mid 1970s. The stock market declined by 50% in the mid ?70s and interest rates climbed to over 20%. That?s right ? 20%! In short, a thriving economy creates a growing population which in turn creates a thriving economy.
ProVise Bullets
by Team of ProVise Management Group,
Here we are at the end of the first quarter of 2011 and we watched the markets move basically upward for the first six weeks of the year, advancing as much as 8% in some cases.Then, uncertainty escalated around the world beginning in mid February.First, there was the fall of the Tunisian and Egyptian governments, along with unrest in other Arab countries. Then in mid March, Japan suffered its earthquake. Meanwhile, the U.S. government kept itself running by passing a series of continuing resolutions, while the politicians still could not come to grips with an approved budget and deficit.
ProVise Bullets
by Team of ProVise Management Group,
Republican lawmakers may have gotten a PR boost for their attempt to cut $60 billion out of the budget. The Treasury Department announced last week that the largest monthly deficit in history was created in February, at $222.5 billion, surpassing the previous record set last February at $220.9 billion. As bad as it seems, the news wasn't all bad, as revenues were up 8.6% and spending was only up 4%. That's a move in the right direction. The biggest concern we have, and the one lawmakers have the least control over is rising interest rates.
ProVise Bullets
Depending upon which survey and data you examine, the municipal bond market is arguably a $3 trillion investment opportunity and only $8 billion of those bonds defaulted during the past year. So, even if the defaults doubled, tripled, quadrupled, or were 10 times greater, it is still a very small percentage of all of the muni bonds out there.
ProVise Bullets
Population growth is a key to any growing economy. When the population shrinks, so does the economy and conversely, when it expands, the economy not only has the opportunity to expand, but generally produces a better lifestyle. For all the problems that the U.S. faces, population growth is not one of them.
ProVise Bullets
The November unemployment number rose to 9.8%. This means that 15.1 million people are out of work. Only 39,000 jobs were added in November, which was significantly below the expectations of most economists. There are two things to keep in mind. First, holiday season numbers fluctuate greatly and we believe the November number will be revised upward, although remaining weak. Second, the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of the economy. In the early stages of a recovery, as more people begin looking for work, the unemployment rate actually goes up.
ProVise Bullets
In the third quarter, America?s gross domestic product grew at a rate of 2%. While many so-called pundits talk about how ?sluggish? the recovery has been, at least we are not listening to anyone continue to spread fear by talking about a double-dip recession. When you consider that the construction industry, which is still in a recession, is an industry which normally helps lead the way out of a recession, it is not surprising that the economy is not growing faster. But it is growing.
ProVise Bullets
If you still don't think a bubble exists in U.S. government bonds, then consider this: The Treasury just sold $10 billion worth of five-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities at a negative yield for the first time ever. People buy TIPS to protect against inflation, and there is so much talk about inflation even though it isn't here yet, the yield on these five-year securities was -0.55 percent.
ProVise Bullets
During the financial crisis and subsequent melt-down, many companies stopped paying dividends, while others reduced them substantially. In the third quarter of this year, however, out of 7,000 publicly traded companies, 299 increased their dividends while only 35 cut them. Given the very low yields on many other types of investments, especially bonds, dividends provide investors with another source of cash flow which can substantially aid them in retirement. Ray Ferrara also comments on the prospects for tax reform after the November elections, and the impact of health care reform.
ProVise Bullets
With 65 percent to 70 percent of our economy directly tied to the consumer, the 'simple' explanation to our current problems is that there is not enough consumer demand. Given that almost 10 percent of Americans who want a job can't find one, and there may be another 8 percent or so who don?t have any interest in getting a job or have simply given up looking, it should not be too surprising that demand is soft. Meanwhile, the 90 percent of people who are working are hunkering down and attempting to reduce their debt and/or build up savings.
ProVise Bullets
Over the next 65 days it might be a bit rocky and it will therefore be important to look ahead six months from now rather than to get caught up in the moment. Investors are shunning equities for bonds, but one day not too far in the future, that trend will reverse. When it does, we could see a dramatic rise in the equity markets. ProVise also comments on Cisco's gloomy earnings report, U.S. GDP growth, falling consumer debt levels, the closing months of the campaign season and a possible real estate bubble in China.
ProVise Bullets
Yields on 10-year Treasury bonds are hovering under 3 percent, which basically means that buyers anticipate inflation will only be 3 percent over the next 10 years. In spite of all the talk about deflation, however, can anyone really believe that inflation won't exceed 3 percent over the next decade given all the money the government has made available? That is why for the most part, ProVise is avoiding long-term bonds in their portfolios - remaining on the short to intermediate side of the yield curve.
ProVise Bullets
The two most important aspects of the financial reform bill: (1) Congress told the SEC to come up with rules for a common version for a standard of care when providing personalized investment advice to individuals; making everyone (financial planners, stockbrokers, insurance agents, etc.) who provide these types of services do so with a fiduciary standard of care; (2) a mandate from Congress to the GAO to do a six month study about the regulation of financial planning as a distinct business. Recent data on retirement readiness is summarized and several other topics are covered.
ProVise Bullet
Let's put into perspective one of the reasons our deficit is so high. In 1984, people with an income of $20,500 or less, the bottom 20 percent of earners, were paying 10.2 percent of their income in taxes; as of 2007 this rate was just 4 percent. Flip this and look at those with annual income of $74,700 or more, the top 20 percent of earners. They saw their tax rates go up from 23.8 percent in 1986 to 28 percent in 1996, and then back down again to 25.1 percent in 2007. The other 60 percent have seen a 4 percent to 5 percent drop in their average tax rate from the mid-80s through 2007.
ProVise Bullets
Given all of the bad political and economic news, it could be argued that it is amazing that the markets have not done worse over the past six to eight weeks. Fundamentally, here in the U.S., it appears we are much better off than we were a year ago and significantly better off than where we were two years ago. There is a lot of long-term value in the market. On a year-to-date basis through June 15, the S&P 500 is up approximately 1 percent and, based on current economic data, a reasonable return of 8 percent to 10 percent is still realistic for the year.
ProVise Bullets
Even though Social Security has built up a $2.5 trillion surplus over the past 25 years, it is projected that over the next 75 years the program will rack up a $5.3 trillion deficit. A new report from a special bipartisan Congressional committee recommends that we raise the Social Security tax, reduce benefits and increase the age of eligibility in order to make up the difference. ProVise also comments on Congressional salaries, a new scam targeting investors, taxes on IRA accounts, education and salary, primary elections, rising stamp costs and trust management.
ProVise Bullets
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testified before Congress that he believes inflation will remain under control for the remainder of the year. He also talked about better retail sales and, perhaps as importantly, increased factory production, which could soon lead to the creation of more jobs. ProVise also comments on the hold on interest rates, lengths of historical bull markets, the ongoing health care debate, mortgage delinquency rates, home sales, nonprofit revenues, and the Forbes lists of the world's richest people and richest Americans.
ProVise Management Group
While many investors feared that health care reform would hurt the market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 44 points just after the bill passed, and is now approaching 11,000. Some Wall Street experts predict the bill will boost demand for prescription drugs and medical care, offsetting the tens of billions that health care firms will pay to subsidize the plan. Provise also comments on the impact of the census, corporate budgeting for 2011, the weakness of the Tampa Bay economy, the rising savings rate, increasing Treasury bond yields, IRS audits and college basketball betting.
ProVise Bullets
President Obama's budget for the upcoming year proposes some significant tax hikes, including a rate increase for the 33 percent income bracket to 36 percent, and an increase for the 35 percent bracket to 39.6 percent. This would affect married couples filing jointly with incomes above $250,000 and single people with incomes above $200,000. It would increase taxes by a total of $969 billion over the next decade. ProVise also examines consumer spending, healthcare reform and Warren Buffet's latest letter to investors, among other topics.
ProVise Bullets
The euro zone and the International Monetary Fund, as well as the U.S. and other mature economies will likely intervene to prevent a Greek default. Too much help for Greece might keep Portugal and Spain from making their own necessary changes. Too many restrictions on aid, however, may lead Greece, Spain and Portugal to withdraw from the euro zone. Provise also comments on declining real estate prices, the 2009 fourth quarter earnings season, the discount rate, inflationary risks, U.S. debt held by China, stock market volatility and President Obama's new health care proposal.
ProVise Bullets
Ray Ferrara of ProVise Management Group says state and local governments could face revenue shortfalls of $175 to $200 billion this year, and notes that tax increases to fill budget gaps may be counterproductive in the current economic climate. He also examines a number of other issues in policy and finance.
ProVise Bullets
This client-oriented letter comments on a number of financial planning topics: the benefits of marriage (men now benefit more than women), the rise in scams due to low interest rates, the implications of volatility and how individual investors should view the market, new proposals for 401(k) plans, and a few others.
Results 51–100
of 147 found.
