In a new quarterly letter to GMO's institutional clients, head of asset allocation Ben Inker addresses "perhaps the most common question I get from clients: What keeps you up at night?" ("Up At Night").
Is the dollar losing its grip on its status as the world’s reserve currency?
Sluggish growth and aggressive central bank actions following the Global Financial Crisis pushed interest rates down to unprecedented levels, even negative outside the US, for longer than many would have expected.
Amar Reganti, a member of GMO’s Asset Allocation team, examines “ultralong” debt in his new white paper “The 100 Year: A Take on the Century Bond.” The recently confirmed Secretary of Treasury, Steven Mnuchin, has indicated that he would "possibly review the issuance of a 100-year bond as an instrument used to achieve that maturity extension."
In a companion paper, “Six Impossible Things Before Breakfast,” we present evidence that asset markets are generally priced for “secular stagnation,” and argue that this requires a number of extreme assumptions on the part of investors.
One of the great joys of working at GMO is the freedom to disagree. Indeed, many moons ago when Ben Inker first approached me about joining GMO, he told me that, having read my work, he believed we were very much philosophically aligned.
Passive “doing-by-not-doing” is no way to run a bond portfolio today.
We believe the consensus view of a Trump presidency translating into a blanket “stay clear of ” investing in emerging markets is overly simplistic. Our analysis of President Trump’s proposed policy of trade protectionism suggests that the impact on emerging markets is more nuanced – the vulnerability of these markets is significantly lower today than it was five years ago...
Some investors are swearing off emerging markets in the age of President Trump. That’s a mistake, says Rick Friedman, a member of GMO’s Asset Allocation team. To these bears, “the double whammy of stimulative US fiscal policies coupled with possible protectionist barriers, makes emerging investments less attractive,” Friedman writes in a new piece “Emerging Markets: Value Trumps Headlines.”
Can target date plans be better? That’s the question many defined contribution plan sponsors are asking and a new paper from GMO’s Peter Chiappinelli and Ram Thirukkonda argues yes, they can.