The term “trend” now has a broader use. Trending is a term used in reference to the buildup of posts on social media. And we find ourselves in a day and age when the leader of the free world is posting using stream of consciousness—annoyingly against a department store that no longer supports his daughter’s line of clothing or worse, tweeting against judges who disagree with his policies. This is a trend we shouldn’t miss.
The world is changing for investors but we believe it's largely in a positive way, although there will be bumps along the way. The recent sideways equity movement was a healthy consolidation of the post-election gains, and we suggest investors add to U.S. equity positions as needed at the expense of some developed market international exposure. Inflation is ticking higher, and the Fed is becoming more hawkish, but the conditions supporting those moves are also positive supports for stock.
U.S. stocks have been consolidating gains seen in the aftermath of the November presidential election, a healthy process following such strong gains. Further appreciation should be supported by improving U.S. and global economic and earnings growth. Disappointments are likely on the U.S. policy front but we would view those as buying opportunities for now.
There are several irrefutable facts that should be informing the strategies for leaders in financial services.
The policy backdrop in the US will be particularly favorable for the economy, with looser fiscal policy, relatively easy monetary policy and a less stringent regulatory environment. Their eight-year US preeminence theme is intact and continues into its ninth year. While President-elect Trump’s initial policy measures with respect to tariffs and trade agreements risk jolting financial markets, he will likely adjust and change course as necessary to achieve his desired results.
We have used the metaphor of the "Plow Horse" to define the US economy since 2009 – an economy driven by new technology and entrepreneurship (fracking, the cloud, smartphones, big data...), but held back by the friction of a growing and burdensome government.
The Calamos Global Equity Team explains why they view India as one of the most compelling stories in the emerging markets.
The holidays are upon us again, and many grandparents are looking forward to one of their favorite moments of the season – the delighted smiles of grandkids opening a present they’ve been dreaming of all year. Give it a few weeks, though, and last year’s trendiest toy often becomes this year’s latest giveaway.
Invesco Fixed Income utilizes a framework based on the idea that changes in growth, inflation and financial conditions drive much of market beta performance, and that understanding these “macro factors” can help us understand market conditions and price action.