Since the November election, the financial markets have priced in a more friendly business environment, with growth boosted by expansionary fiscal policy. However, the White House does not have absolute power.
Longer-term bond yields are near their highs for this cycle, while the environment for riskier assets like high-yield bonds, bank loans and stocks remains positive.
The December Employment Report showed the job market to be in good shape. The pace of job growth slowed in 2016, partly reflecting tighter labor market conditions.
The outlook for 2017 is now shaping up as a battle of ideas, though few seem to be realizing it yet. The stock market has risen since the election.
Federal Reserve policymakers are widely expected to raise short-term interest rates this week. The policy statement should continue to suggest that, while the pace of tightening is expected to be gradual, action will remain data-dependent.
The November job market report was a mixed bag. Nonfarm payrolls were in line with expectations, continuing to reflect a more moderate pace of job growth in 2016 (although still relatively strong).
Since its founding 35 years ago, The Leuthold Group has utilized a distinctive blend of quantitative, fundamental, and technical analysis to guide its investment activities.
Following the surprising election of Donald Trump and the news that Republicans had held on to the House and Senate, the stock market rallied.
Here’s our view on what a Trump presidency and Republican Congress likely mean for markets over the near, medium and longer terms.
The October job market data were not far from expectations, consistent with a further tightening in labor market conditions.