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The Illusion Of Full Employment And Technology
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
Recently, Tim Duy wrote an interesting piece entitled "Yes, I am Optimistic" wherein he stated that: "The lesson no one wants to draw from this recovery is that the US economy is both stronger and more resilient than commonly believed. Do not dismiss the real improvement in the economy since 2009. It is not unimportant that 2014 is likely to be the biggest year for private sector employment..."
Five Things To Ponder: Tryptophan Induced Coma
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
As we prepare for the annual food fest, and post-Thanksgiving tryptophan-induced food coma; I thought this weekend's reading list should be a bit of a smorgasbord of interesting topics to stimulate your brain cells between naps and football.
3 Things to Think About, Including the Disconnect between Data And Surveys
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
Last Friday, I discussed the growing gap between economic reports particularly when they measure the same basic areas of the overall economy. For example, how can the Markit Manufacturing PMI Index be negative for three months while the ISM PMI has surged higher during the same period. Both cannot be right.
3 Things Worth Thinking About, Including the Message from Commodities
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
Following the October swoon, stocks have vaulted to all-time highs. As I discussed previously in "Sentiment Is Off The Charts Bullish," there have only been few occasions where investors have felt so "giddy" about the financial markets. Such periods of exuberance have never ended well for investors as they were deluded by near-term "greed" which blinded them to the building risks.
Mean-Reverting Profits and Other Things Worth Thinking About
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
Earlier this week I discussed the growing detachment between the stock market and the "real" underlying economy. One of the areas I touched on was corporate earnings that have been elevated by an immense amount of accounting gimmackry, cost cutting, and productivity increases. The problem, as I stated, is that historically earnings have grown 6% peak-to-peak before a reversion. Notice, I said peak-to-peak. The issue is that the majority of analysts now estimate that earnings will rise unabated for the next five years.
Early Freeze Could Derail Economic Growth Forecasts
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
This past August I discussed the potential for the market to rise to 2100 along with "5-risks" to that forecast. One of those risks related to the "Polar Vortex" that shut down economic activity across much of the northern part of the economy.
5 Things To Ponder: GOP Takes Control
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
This past Tuesday the conservative Republican candidates garnered a resounding victory over their Democratic challengers in even some of the "bluest" states. The message that was sent by voters was quite clear: "The real economy sucks."
3 Things Worth Thinking About, Including the Odds of a Suckers Rally
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
Each week in my weekly newsletter I do a complete overview on major markets, sectors and other market areas such as interest rates, gold and oil. I bring this up because the recent melt-down in oil and energy related stocks is something that I warned about in early August of this year.
Why The Fed Will End QE On Wednesday
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
This week we will find out the answer to whether the Federal Reserve will end its current quantitative easing program or not. Today is the last open market operation of the current program, and my bet is that it will be the last, for now. Here are my three reasons why I believe this to be the case.
5 Things To Ponder: To QE Or Not To QE
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
Over the last few weeks, the markets have seen wild vacillations as stocks plunged and then surged on a massive short-squeeze in the most beaten up sectors of energy and small-mid capitalization companies. While "Ebola" fears filled mainstream headlines the other driver behind the sell-off, and then marked recovery, was a variety of rhetoric surrounding the last vestiges of the current quantitative easing program by the Fed. As I have shown many times in the past, there is a high degree of correlation between the Fed's liquidity programs and the advance in the markets.
3 Things Worth Thinking About: Inflation, the Current Rally and Faith in the Fed
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
What is quickly being realized on a global basis is that injecting the system with liquidity that flows into asset prices, does not create organic economic demand. Both Japan and the Eurozone's interventions have failed to spark inflationary pressures as the massive debt burden's carried by these countries continues to sap the ability to stimulate real growth.
5 Things To Ponder: "Buy" or "Run"
This past week investors to a blow from a sharp selloff in the financial markets. I have spilled quite a bit of ink in recent months discussing the probabilities of such as corrective event as the Federal Reserves current liquidity operation came to a conclusion this month.
Inconceivable
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
The point is that there are many risks investors should not ignore. Making up losses is much harder than reinvesting stored capital once a clearer picture emerges. While the current belief that a correction of magnitude in the markets is "inconceivable," I am not sure that word means what they think it means.
Five Things To Ponder: Through The Looking Glass
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
Is this the beginning of a bigger correction, or just a respite before the next advance? This is the first correction, since the beginning of the Federal Reserves latest round of quantitative easing, where the market has broken decisively through its shorter term moving average as shown below.
Why Do Investors Really Underperform Over Time?
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
There have been numerous articles written as of late that have chastised individuals for "missing out on the bull market" which was only slightly worse than "not beating it." The reasons were chalked up to bad investment advice and paying "too much" in fees which caused the underperformance. While both of those reasons may be contributors to the problem, they are in reality on very small components of the problem when compared to the three single largest contributors to investor underperformance over time.
The Statistical Recovery Continues
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
This past Friday, investors awoke to news that, according to the U.S. Labor Department, employers added 248,000 jobs last month. In addition, job numbers for previous months were revised upward, and the jobless rate fell to 5.9% from August's 6.1%. These numbers had the mainstream media cheering that "economic victory" was nigh and stocks were propelled upward.
5 Things To Ponder: Motley Cognizance
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
It has been an interesting week in the financial markets as the current correction process has continued. As shown in the chart below, the correction has primarily occurred in the mid, small and international equities as money has rotated into mega-large cap stocks for safety.
Correction Awakens Sleeping Bears, Plunging Oil and Dollar Spikes
Since the end of 2012, the S&P 500 has been on an inexhaustible rise despite rising geopolitical tensions, extremely cold weather and weak economic data. The driver, of course, has been the massive liquidity inflows from the Federal Reserve that have catapulted the markets from their previous upward bullish trend into an accelerated push. This is shown in the chart below.
No Recession Now - But When?
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
There have been a few calls as of late (Hussman, ECRI, Shilling) stating that we are currently in the next recession. Then there is everyone else. While the "optimistic" outlook is always more enjoyable to listen to - the problem is that the current "no recession" view is primarily predicated on current quarter growth rates looked at in isolation. These data points are then extrapolated into continuous future economic expansion.
Sex, Money and Largesse: The Hidden Depression
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
"Sex" and "Money" are probably two of the most powerful words in the English language. First, those two words got you to look at this article. They also sell products, books and services from "How To Have Better Sex" to "How To Make More Money" ostensibly so you can have more of the former. Unfortunately, they are also the two primary causes of divorce in the country today.
Likely Triggers of the Next Recession
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
The conjecture about the next recession has raged ever since the end of the last one. Will it be in 2012 or 2013 or, if you believe the many mainstream economists' estimates, never? Historically speaking, recessions have occurred on average of about every 6-8 years regardless of monetary or fiscal policies, the strength of the economy or global peace - they occurred nonetheless. There is really no argument whether there will be a recession in our future. The only question is the timing and cause of it. The latter point is the most important. Recessions do not just happen. They need a push.
Impatience Will Lead To Our Demise
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
What is both disturbing and disappointing is the lack of foresight exhibited by the media and political leaders of not only Europe but the U.S. as well. It should not be a surprise to anyone that the austerity regimen, agreed to last month as a long term solution to Europe's sovereign debt crisis, is going to cause economic growth to slow. We have been very vocal about this point. Austerity measures cannot be imposed when an economy is saddled by rising debt costs and high unemployment. It will reduce economic output and therefore requires a strongly growing economy to offset the drag.
10 More Years of Low Returns
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
Ten more years of low returns in the stock market. If you are one of the millions of baby boomers headed into retirement-start saving more and spending less because the stock market won't bail you out. I will explain why this is the likely future ahead for investors. In this weekends newsletter I wrote that "If you put all of your money into cash today and dont look at the market for another decade you will be better off..."I realize that this statement is equivalent to heresy where Wall Street is concerned but there is one reason behind my apparent madness - the power of reversion.
Media Headlines Will Lead You To Ruin
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
Two weeks ago Barron's ran the cover page of "Dow 15,000". Over the weekend Alan Abelson ran a column titled "Everyone In The Pool". Today, CNBC leads with "Dow 13,000 May Finally Lure Investors Back Into Stocks". Unfortunately, for most investors, the CNBC headline is probably right. Investors, on the whole, have a tendency to do exactly the opposite of what they should do when it comes to investing: "Buy High and Sell Low." The reality is that the emotions of greed and fear do more to cause investors to lose money in the market than being robbed at the point of a gun.
Markets Surge As World Engages In Global Bailout
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
Today, the remaining survivors of the global financial rout have coordinated an "all in" gamble to save the world from the next impending crisis. This morning's announcement that the Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank and Bank of Canada will lower the rates on currency swaps as well as lower pricing on existing US Dollar swaps provides a massive liquidity canon for the global financial system. While the markets are surging, the important take away here is that the world is in FAR WORSE shape than has previously been discussed.
Understanding Federal Debt: Point - Counter Point
Once the debt required to create $1 of GDP growth exceeded $1, the rate of economic growth in the U.S. has been on a steady decline. Unfortunately, while debt was accumulated and savings depleted in order to sustain an extraordinary lifestyle for the last three decades, the ability to create productive investment has been depleted. The fiscal and monetary policies implemented by the last five administrations have left the country in a far weaker state, as each President continued the failed policies from the one before. Now we must deal with the issues.
Bearish Sentiment Abounds
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
The bears have control of Wall Street and have mauled stocks for the past five months. Now with bearish sentiment running amok, is it time to begin investing back into the market for "longer term" investors? Lately there have been numerous analysts and media outlets touting the cheapness of the markets based on forward earnings expectations. The problem with that premise is that it is highly likely that those expectations are too lofty considering the economic slowdown currently in progress. Furthermore, valuation models are horrible "timing" indicators for both traders and investors.
The Great American Economic Lie
The idea that the economy has grown at roughly 5% since 1980 is a lie. In reality the economic growth of the U.S. has been declining rapidly over the past 30 years supported only by a massive push into deficit spending. From 1950-1980 the economy grew at an annualized rate of 7.7%. This was accomplished with a total credit market debt to GDP ratio of less than 150%. The CRITICAL factor to note is that economic growth was trending higher during this span, going from roughly 5% to a peak of nearly 15%. The end game of three decades of excess is upon us.
Boomers Are Going To Be A Real Drag
Many may scoff at the Fed's report that stock prices will not recover to their 2010 highs until 2027. The migration of "baby boomers" into retirement, combined with sustained high unemployment, low savings rates and a weak economy, does not bode well for strong financial markets into the future. While there are hopes that the economy will recover in spite of the abundance of factors building against it, the reality is that we may be dealing with the "Japanese Experience".
Are We Headed For A Second Recession?
Is a second recession in so short of a time in the offing? It certainly seems that way. The hope for a continued recovery has grown dim lately as many of the economic indexes are moving towards contractionary territory. In the words of David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff, "one small shock" could send us into a second recession. With the recent release of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, our proprietary economic index is just one small step away from crossing the 35 mark which has always been a pre-cursor to recession.
Tax Reform: The Overlooked Solution
The "wealthy", defined by the current administration as those making more than $250,000 a year, also comprise the largest percentage of small business owners - the group that creates the majority of jobs. When you look at the data, they are already paying more than their "fair share". The top 10% of wage earners pay more than 70% of all of the taxes while the top 25% covers almost 90%. Here is my "radically moderate" view point: Tapping the people who already pay 90% of the tax bill will not create more revenue. On the contrary, it will cause further economic weakness.
Results 851–886
of 886 found.
