What Explains the Outperformance of Loans?

Subscribe to this podcast on:  

 

 

About This Episode

Guessing the direction of interest rates is no easier than any other tactical or market timing decision. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note is just under 3.9%. That is about 100 basis points less than it was a few months ago. Fed policy is uncertain, inflation has not been fully controlled, and fiscal deficits loom as a long-term risk for yields to go higher.

Those factors argue in favor of an allocation to floating-rate notes. My guest today will help us explore this asset class, its opportunities and its risks.

About Our Guest

Jake Lemle, CFA, is managing director, head of loan trading & capital markets, and a portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.

Jake is a managing director of Morgan Stanley Investment Management Fixed Income, head of loan mtrading & capital markets and portfolio manager on the floating-rate loan team. He is responsible for trading high-yield loans and bonds for the senior debt group as well as public funds, separate accounts, commingled institutional accounts and structured products. He also has responsibilities for buy and sell decisions, portfolio construction and risk management. He began his career in the investment management industry with Eaton Vance in 2007. Morgan Stanley acquired Eaton Vance in March 2021. Jake earned a B.S. from Georgetown University. He is on the board of directors of Artists for Humanity in South Boston and a member of the Acquisitions Circle of the Institute of Contemporary Art, Boston. He is a CFA charterholder.

Show Notes

Here are some links to learn more about EVLN and Eaton Vance

Eaton Vance Floating-Rate ETF

All Eaton Vance ETFs


Data as of: February 2, 2024

Risk Considerations: There is no assurance that a portfolio will achieve its investment objective. Portfolios are subject to market risk, which is the possibility that the market values of securities owned by the portfolio will decline. Market values can change daily due to economic and other events (e.g. natural disasters, health crises, terrorism, conflicts and social unrest) that affect markets, countries, companies or governments. It is difficult to predict the timing, duration, and potential adverse effects (e.g. portfolio liquidity) of events. Accordingly, you can lose money investing in this portfolio. Please be aware that this portfolio may be subject to certain additional risks. Loans are generally associated with fixed income securities risk and are traded in a private, unregulated inter-dealer or inter-bank resale market and are generally subject to contractual restrictions that must be satisfied before a loan can be bought or sold. These restrictions may impede the Fund's ability to buy or sell loans (thus affecting their liquidity) and may negatively impact the transaction price. It may take longer than seven days for transactions in loans to settle; therefore the Fund may hold cash, sell investments or temporarily borrow from banks or other lenders to meet short-term liquidity needs. Loans to entities located outside of the U.S. may have substantially different lender protections and covenants as compared to loans to U.S. entities and may involve greater risks. Loans may be structured such that they are not securities under securities law, and in the event of fraud or misrepresentation by a borrower, lenders may not have the protection of the anti-fraud provisions of the federal securities laws. Loans are also subject to risks associated with other types of income investments. Fixed-income securities are subject to the ability of an issuer to make timely principal and interest payments (credit risk), changes in interest rates (interest-rate risk), the creditworthiness of the issuer and general market liquidity (market risk). In a rising interest-rate environment, bond prices may fall and may result in periods of volatility and increased portfolio redemptions. In a declining interest-rate environment, the portfolio may generate less income. In addition to fixed income securities risk, asset-backed securities are subject to the risk that various federal and state consumer laws and other legal and economic factors may result in the collateral backing the securities being insufficient to support payment on the securities. Some also entail prepayment risk and extension risk, and may become more volatile in certain interest rate environment. Collateralized loan obligations carry additional risks such as the Fund may invest in CLOs that are subordinate to other classes and the complex structure may not be fully understood at the time of investment and may produce disputes with the issuer or unexpected investment results. Distressed and defaulted securities are speculative and involve substantial risks in addition to the risks of investing in high yield securities, which are lower rated securities that may have a higher degree of credit and liquidity risk. The Fund will generally not receive interest payments on the distressed securities and the repayment of principal may also be at risk. These securities may present a substantial risk of default or may be in default at the time of investment, requiring the Fund to incur additional costs. Mezzanine investments are subordinated debt securities, thus they carry the risk that the issuer will not be able to meet its obligations and that the mezzanine investments may lose value. Investments in foreign markets entail special risks such as currency, political, economic, and market risks. The risks of investing in emerging market countries are greater than the risks generally associated with investments in foreign developed countries. Currency fluctuations could erase investment gains or add to investment losses. Illiquid securities may be more difficult to sell and value than publicly traded securities (liquidity risk). Derivative instruments may disproportionately increase losses and have a significant impact on performance. They also may be subject to counterparty, liquidity, valuation, correlation and market risks. Portfolio Turnover. Consistent with its investment policies, the Fund will purchase and sell securities without regard to the effect on portfolio turnover. Higher portfolio turnover will cause the Fund to incur additional transaction costs. Active Management Risk. In pursuing the Portfolio’s investment objective, the Adviser has considerable leeway in deciding which investments to buy, hold or sell on a day-to-day basis, and which trading strategies to use. The success or failure of such decisions will affect performance. ETF Structure Risks. Authorized Participant Concentration Risk. The Portfolio has a limited number of intermediaries that act as authorized participants and none of these authorized participants is or will be obligated to engage in creation or redemption transactions. As a result, shares may trade at a discount to net asset value (“NAV”) and possibly face trading halts and/or delisting. Cash Transactions Risk. Unlike certain ETFs, the Fund may effect creations and redemptions in cash or partially in cash. Therefore, it may be required to sell portfolio securities and subsequently recognize gains on such sales that the Fund might not have recognized if it were to distribute portfolio securities in-kind. As such, investments in shares may be less tax-efficient. Trading Risk. The market prices of Shares are expected to fluctuate, in some cases materially, in response to changes in the Portfolio's NAV, the intra-day value of holdings, and supply and demand for Shares. The Adviser cannot predict whether Shares will trade above, below or at their NAV. may pay significantly more or receive significantly less than the Fund’s NAV per share during periods when there is a significant premium or discount. Buying or selling Shares in the secondary market may require paying brokerage commissions or other charges imposed by brokers as determined by that broker. New Fund Risk. A new portfolio's performance may not represent how the portfolio is expected to or may perform in the long term. In addition, there is a limited operating history for investors to evaluate and the portfolio may not attract sufficient assets to achieve investment and trading efficiencies.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

References to general market performance or characteristics are those of representative indices.

The index is unmanaged and does not include any expenses, fees or sales charges. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Any index referred to herein is the intellectual property (including registered trademarks) of the applicable licensor.

There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will work under all market conditions, and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long-term, especially during periods of downturn in the market.

The views and opinions and/or analysis expressed are those of the author or the investment team as of the date of preparation of this material and are subject to change at any time without notice due to market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Furthermore, the views will not be updated or otherwise revised to reflect information that subsequently becomes available or circumstances existing, or changes occurring, after the date of publication. The views expressed do not reflect the opinions of all investment personnel at Morgan Stanley Investment Management (MSIM) and its subsidiaries and affiliates (collectively “the Firm”) and may not be reflected in all the strategies and products that the Firm offers.

Forecasts and/or estimates provided herein are subject to change and may not actually come to pass. Information regarding expected market returns and market outlooks is based on the research, analysis and opinions of the authors or the investment team. These conclusions are speculative in nature, may not come to pass and are not intended to predict the future performance of any specific strategy or product the Firm offers. Future results may differ significantly depending on factors such as changes in securities or financial markets or general economic conditions.

This material has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other third-party sources believed to be reliable. However, no assurances are provided regarding the reliability of such information and the Firm has not sought to independently verify information taken from public and third-party sources.

This material is a general communication, which is not impartial and all information provided has been prepared solely for informational and educational purposes and does not constitute an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or to adopt any specific investment strategy. The information herein has not been based on a consideration of any individual investor circumstances and is not investment advice, nor should it be construed in any way as tax, accounting, legal or regulatory advice. To that end, investors should seek independent legal and financial advice, including advice as to tax consequences, before making any investment decision.

This material is not a product of Morgan Stanley’s Research Department and should not be regarded as a research material or a recommendation.

The Firm has not authorized financial intermediaries to use and to distribute this material, unless such use and distribution is made in accordance with applicable law and regulation. Additionally, financial intermediaries are required to satisfy themselves that the information in this material is appropriate for any person to whom they provide this material in view of that person’s circumstances and purpose. The Firm shall not be liable for, and accepts no liability for, the use or misuse of this material by any such financial intermediary.

The whole or any part of this material may not be directly or indirectly reproduced, copied, modified, used to create a derivative work, performed, displayed, published, posted, licensed, framed, distributed or transmitted or any of its contents disclosed to third parties without the Firm’s express written consent. This material may not be linked to unless such hyperlink is for personal and non-commercial use. All information contained herein is proprietary and is protected under copyright and other applicable law.

Morgan Stanley Investment Management Inc. is the adviser to the Eaton Vance ETFs. Morgan Stanley Investment Management Limited is the sub-adviser to Eaton Vance High Yield ETF.

Eaton Vance ETFs are distributed by Foreside Fund Services, LLC.

Before investing, prospective investors should consider carefully the investment objective(s), risks, and charges and expenses. Read the prospectus carefully before you invest or send money. To obtain an exchange-traded fund (ETF) prospectus or summary prospectus, download a copy at eatonvance.com.

NOT FDIC INSURED | OFFER NO BANK GUARANTEE | MAY LOSE VALUE | NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY | NOT A DEPOSIT

© 2024 Morgan Stanley. All rights reserved.