Rising Rates And Volatility Might Create Future Opportunities
Catching inflection points is the holy grail of trading. It’s what makes investing lore.
How Gold Lost Its Inflation Luster
Many investors buy gold to protect against inflation. However, it's not as effective a hedge as believed. In my article below, I discuss how gold’s relationship to money, and as a result inflation, changed.
Chinese Investment Markets Reveal Their Fatter Tails
It's truly sad to watch events unfold in China. However, it's no surprise that investment markets are falling with China's increased economic controls. As discussed in my article, centralization produces fragility.
Inflation Is Shortages And Thankfully Transitory
I’ve got inflation on my mind these days.
Using GameStop To Uncover Biases
What recently transpired in GameStop's stock was truly epic. More astonishing, though, was the ease at which a nihilistic narrative took hold in the absence of fact. To me it was telling and an opportunity to improve my thinking.
How I Process Ideas Into Investments
Abstract investment themes are much more than entertainment. They’re serious business and have roles to play in portfolios. I share my process for incorporating then into mine.
Collateral, Leverage, & Volatility: The What, How, & When To Invest
What to own, how to do so, and when are the most important questions investors face. In my article, I discuss how a framework of collateral, leverage, and volatility can be used to help answer them.
Commoditizing My Framework For A New Paradigm
When it comes to investing it’s never different this time; nor, however, is it ever the same. This difficult-to-navigate paradox creates a scarcity of longevity. Today’s persistently low yield environment has upped the ante and put many marquis names out of business.
Why Are We So Scared
I can’t seem to shake this sense that we live in a culture that’s scared. I see a number of signs across the economic, political, and investment landscapes that seem support this observation.Yet change is the essence of investing. Those who embrace it will survive. Those who don’t could perish from this business.
Superforecasting A Bear Market
I apply some learned forecasting techniques from Superforecasting to the question of whether the U.S. will enter a bear market. I examined some data and devised a good base rate to start with given current conditions.
The Opportunity Of Misplaced Inflation
The global economy is apparently facing a significant problem. Inflation’s gone missing! Central bankers can’t seem to stoke it no matter how deftly they act.
Reflexivity Here In The Yield Curve & Everywhere
This is my brief exploration of George Soros's theory of reflexivity (a.k.a. complexity theory, complex adaptive system analysis, etc.). I simply see reflexivity everywhere and can't help but wonder if the yield curve inversion might be an instance of epic proportions.
Cheap Fed Liquidity Forestalls Deleveraging & Entices Debt
The following is Part 3 in my journey to uncover the impact that the Fed plays in investment markets. Contrary to popular belief, the Fed does not create money. Rather, it provides cheap liquidity to banks. In a fiat currency regime, I believe, this forestalls deleveraging and encourages debt growth.
Value Investing: Is Life Imitating Art?
Some of the investing "heavyweights" have been debating whether or not value investing is dead. I compile some of what's being discussed and can't help but wonder if this is an example of life imitating art.
Disintegrated Thoughts: ECB Volatility, Business Building, Speculation, & Judo
For this post, I’d like to offer a few “Disintegrated Thoughts” on some things I’ve been thinking about in the investment markets. These include: The ECB and volatility deleveraging, Business building and ignoring valuations, Sticking up for “speculation” and Notes from the judo mat.