The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), providing forecasts for energy markets. This article presents the annual production outlooks for crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs), comparing the July 2026 projections against the previous month's estimates. These forecasts are particularly relevant for energy infrastructure companies operating in the U.S.
Key Takeaways
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U.S. crude oil production forecast for 2026 increased by 0.4% to 13.78 million barrels per day.
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U.S. marketed natural gas production forecast for 2026 increased by 0.1% to 122.40 billion cubic feet per day.
- U.S. natural gas liquids production forecast for 2026 decreased by 1.2% to 7.75 million barrels per day.
The Role of Energy Infrastructure in the Economy
Energy infrastructure forms the bridge between energy production (supply) and consumption (demand). It includes the transportation, storage, and processing of crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs through a network of pipelines, terminals, and other infrastructure.
"The global economy requires vast amounts of energy. As the world’s largest producer of oil, natural gas, and NGLs, energy infrastructure plays a critical role in connecting US energy production with domestic and global demand," adds Stacy Morris, Head of Index Product Research at TMX VettaFi.
U.S. Crude Oil Production Outlook
The July 2026 STEO showed mixed revisions in the near-term and long-term forecasts for U.S. crude oil production compared to the June 2026 estimates. The forecast for 2026 was raised by 0.4% to 13.78 million barrels per day (MMBpd). While, the estimate for 2027 shows a forecast of 14.03 MMBpd, which represents a 0.8% decline from the June estimate of 14.15 MMBpd. Based on the latest figures, this results in a projected yearly growth of 1.4% from 2025 to 2026, and a growth of 1.8% from 2026 to 2027.
U.S. Natural Gas Production Outlook
The forecast for U.S. marketed natural gas production showed an increase in both the short and long term forecasts in the July 2026 STEO. The 2026 forecast saw a slight upward revision of 0.1% to 122.40 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) while the 2027 forecast saw an upward revision of 1.2% to 126.90 Bcf/d. These updates represent a projected yearly growth rate of 3.4% from 2025 to 2026, and further growth of 3.7% from 2026 to 2027.
U.S. Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) Production Outlook
Natural Gas Plant Liquids (NGLs) production forecasts showed declines in both the short and long term in the July 2026 STEO. The 2026 forecast saw a decrease of 1.2% to 7.75 MMBpd compared to the June estimate of 7.84 MMBpd. Meanwhile, the estimate for 2027 fell by 1.3% to 8.06 MMBpd from the previous month's estimate of 8.17 MMBpd. This reflects a yearly growth rate of 3.7% growth from 2025 to 2026, and an additional 4.0% growth from 2026 to 2027.
To provide a clearer view of the long-term shifts in this month's outlook, the following table summarizes the updated 2027 production forecasts for crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs compared to last month’s estimates.
ETFs related to the energy infrastructure space include: the Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP) and the Alerian Energy Infrastructure ETF (ENFR).
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