Manufacturing activity rose modestly in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing June survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions remained positive but dropped 13.9 points to 5.7, falling short of the 13.2 forecast.
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO GROW
On the heels of a strong increase in May, manufacturing activity rose modestly in New York State in June. The general business conditions index came in at 5.7, with 29 percent of respondents reporting an increase in activity and 23 percent reporting a decrease. The new orders index moved down to 3.5, pointing to a slight increase in orders, and the shipments index printed at 8.6, pointing to a modest increase in shipments. Unfilled orders continued to rise. Inventories held steady. The delivery times index remained positive at 11.9, suggesting that delivery times continued to lengthen. The supply availability index edged down three points to -13.9, its lowest level since June 2022, pointing to worsening supply availability.
PRICE INCREASES REMAIN ELEVATED
The index for number of employees held steady at 9.6, and the average workweek index came in at 5.1, signaling that employment and hours worked both increased for a fifth consecutive month. The pace of price increases remained elevated, with the prices paid index little changed at 61.0 and the prices received index holding at 31.4.
Background on the Empire State Manufacturing Survey
The Empire State Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions in New York state. A level above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, and below indicates worsening conditions. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 200 manufacturers in New York state.
Below is a chart of the current conditions and its 3-month moving average, which helps clarify the trend for this extremely volatile indicator. The current 3-month moving average stands at 12.1, the tenth consecutive positive reading and highest level since early 2022.
Since this survey only goes back to July of 2001, we only have two complete business cycles with which to evaluate its usefulness as an indicator for the broader economy. Following the great recession, the index has slipped into contraction multiple times, as the general trend slowed. We saw a gradual decline in 2015 that rose back up in 2016, with a giant dip in 2020 due to COVID-19. The index quickly picked up again in 2021, declined for 2022, and gradually rose in 2023. The index kicked off 2024 with a sharp decline but rose during the back half of the year, reaching positive territory for the first time in over 2.5 years. Similarly, the index dropped into negative territory at the start of 2025 but crawled its way into positive territory starting in August.
