Home prices declined in April as the benchmark national index fell for a second straight month. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.4% decrease month-over-month and a 2.7% increase year-over-year. This marks the third straight month of year-over-year declines and is the smallest annual gain since August 2023. After adjusting for inflation, the monthly change fell to -0.8% and annual change fell to -1.5%.
The S&P Case-Shiller benchmark 20-City composite aims to measure the value of residential real estate in the following 20 major U.S. cities: Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, Tampa, and Washington D.C. The benchmark 20-city index fell for a second straight month in April. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the 20-city index saw a 0.3% decline month-over-month and a 3.4% increase year-over-year. This marks the third straight month of year-over-year declines and is the smallest annual gain since August 2023. After adjusting for inflation, the monthly change was reduced to -0.7% and annual change was reduced to -0.9%.
The S&P Case-Shiller benchmark 10-City composite, a subset of the 20-city index, aims to measure the change in value of residential real estate in the following 10 major U.S. cities: Boston, Chicago, Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, San Diego, San Francisco, and Washington D.C. The benchmark 10-city index was down for a second straight month in April. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the 10-city index saw a 0.3% decline month-over-month and a 4.0% increase year-over-year. This marks the third straight month of year-over-year declines and is the smallest annual gain since August 2023. After adjusting for inflation, the monthly change was reduced to -0.6% and annual change was reduced to -0.3%.
Here is the analysis from today's Standard & Poor's press release:
ANALYSIS
“The housing market continued its gradual deceleration in April, with annual price gains slowing to their most modest pace in nearly two years,” said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “What's particularly striking is how this cycle has reshuffled regional leadership—markets that were pandemic darlings are now lagging, while historically steady performers in the Midwest and Northeast are setting the pace. This rotation signals a maturing market that's increasingly driven by fundamentals rather than speculative fervor.
“The National Composite Index posted a 2.7% annual gain in April, marking its slowest year-over-year appreciation since mid-2023. This deceleration was broad-based, with the 20-City Composite advancing 3.4% and the 10-City Composite up 4.1%—both substantially below their recent peaks. The composition of these gains tells an important story: Approximately 1.7 percentage points of April's annual increase occurred over the past six months, indicating that price momentum has been concentrated in the recent spring selling season rather than sustained throughout the year.
“Regional performance revealed a dramatic shift from pandemic-era patterns. New York led all metros with a robust 7.9% annual gain, followed by Chicago (6.0%) and Detroit (5.5%)—a lineup that would have been unthinkable during the height of the Sun Belt surge. Meanwhile, former leaders stumbled: Tampa fell 2.2% year-over-year and Dallas turned negative at -0.2%, becoming the only two metros to post annual declines. San Francisco managed just 0.2% growth, while Phoenix (+1.3%) and Miami (+1.4%) barely registered gains. This geographic rotation reflects the fundamental economics now driving the market: Affordability constraints have hit previously overheated markets hardest, while traditionally stable markets with more reasonable price levels are attracting renewed interest.
“April's monthly performance showed continued seasonal strength but with notable cooling from March's peak. Eighteen metros posted positive monthly gains before seasonal adjustment, led by Detroit (+1.5%), Boston (+1.5%), and New York (+1.2%). However, after seasonal adjustment, the National Index actually declined 0.4%, suggesting that April's 0.6% raw gain was weaker than typical spring patterns would predict. This divergence between raw and seasonally adjusted figures hints that the market's seasonal rhythms may be dampening as affordability pressures intensify.
“The underlying market dynamics remain challenging but not dire. Mortgage rates sustained their mid6% range throughout April, keeping monthly payment burdens near generational highs and effectively pricing out significant segments of potential buyers. Yet housing supply remains severely constrained, with existing homeowners reluctant to surrender their sub-4% pandemic-era rates and new construction failing to meet demand. This supply-demand imbalance continues to provide a price floor, preventing the sharp corrections that some had feared.
“We're witnessing a housing market in transition,” Godec concluded. “The era of broad-based, rapid price appreciation appears over, replaced by a more selective environment where local fundamentals matter more than national trends. For investors and policymakers alike, this shift toward geographic divergence and moderate growth may actually represent a healthier, more sustainable trajectory than the unsustainable boom we experienced just a few years ago.”
