Dallas Fed Manufacturing: Conditions Worsen to 5-Year Low

The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for April. The general business activity index came in at -35.8, its lowest level since 2020. This marks a 19.5 point decline from the previous month and the third straight monthly decline.

Texas factory activity continued to rise in April, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, was largely unchanged at 5.1, a reading indicative of modest growth.

Other measures of manufacturing activity signaled contraction, however. The new orders index plummeted 20 points to -20.0. The capacity utilization index edged down to -3.8, and the shipments index fell into negative territory for the first time this year, slipping to -5.5 from 6.1.

Perceptions of broader business conditions continued to worsen notably in April. The general business activity index fell 20 points to -35.8, its lowest reading since May 2020. The company outlook index also retreated to a postpandemic low of -28.3. The outlook uncertainty index pushed up 11 points to 47.1.

Labor market measures suggested a slight decrease in head counts and shorter workweeks this month. The employment index held fairly steady at -3.9, with 9 percent of firms noting net hiring and 13 percent noting net layoffs. The hours worked index slipped to -6.4 from -2.9.

Price pressures accelerated in April, while wage growth remained fairly stable. The raw materials prices index jumped 11 points to 48.4, its highest reading since mid-2022. The finished goods prices index rose nine points to 14.9, a reading well above average. Meanwhile, the wages and benefits index held mostly steady at 14.3, below its average reading.