Consumer Sentiment Falls Further as Inflation Expectations Soar

Consumer confidence took another hit this month, primarily due to escalating worries about trade wars, inflation, and the labor market. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index plummeted to 50.8 in April, its second-lowest reading on record, surpassed only by June 2022. This represents a significant 10.9% (6.2 point) decline from March, undershooting the anticipated 54.0. Furthermore, consumer sentiment has decreased by 34.2% (26.4 points) compared to a year ago, marking the largest annual decline since July 2022.

The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is a monthly survey of consumer confidence levels in the U.S. with regards to the economy, personal finances, business conditions, and buying conditions, conducted by the University of Michigan. There are two reports released each month; a preliminary report released mid-month and a final report released at the end of the month.

Joanne Hsu, the director of surveys, made the following comments:

Consumer sentiment fell for the fourth straight month, plunging 11% from March. This decline was, like the last month’s, pervasive and unanimous across age, income, education, geographic region, and political affiliation. Sentiment has now lost more than 30% since December 2024 amid growing worries about trade war developments that have oscillated over the course of the year. Consumers report multiple warning signs that raise the risk of recession: expectations for business conditions, personal finances, incomes, inflation, and labor markets all continued to deteriorate this month. The share of consumers expecting unemployment to rise in the year ahead increased for the fifth consecutive month and is now more than double the November 2024 reading and the highest since 2009. This lack of labor market confidence lies in sharp contrast to the past several years, when robust spending was supported primarily by strong labor markets and incomes. Note that interviews for this release were conducted between March 25 and April 8, closing prior to the April 9 tariff partial reversal.