The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® hit a six-month high in August. The index rose to 103.3 this month from July's upwardly revised 101.9. This month's reading was better than expected, exceeding the 100.9 forecast.
The Present Situation Index, which is based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions, increased to 134.4 from 133.1 in July. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index, which is based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, rose to 82.5 from 81.1 in July. Note that a level of 80 or below for the Expectations Index historically signals a recession within the next year.
“Overall consumer confidence rose in August but remained within the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years,” said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. “Consumers continued to express mixed feelings in August. Compared to July, they were more positive about business conditions, both current and future, but also more concerned about the labor market. Consumers’ assessments of the current labor situation, while still positive, continued to weaken, and assessments of the labor market going forward were more pessimistic. This likely reflects the recent increase in unemployment. Consumers were also a bit less positive about future income.”
“In August, confidence declined among consumers under 35 while it increased for those 35 and older. On a six-month moving average basis, confidence remained the highest among young consumers. Despite the overall improvement in the headline Index, confidence declined for consumers earning less than $25K. On a six-month moving average basis, consumers earning over $100K remained the most confident. Confidence among consumers earning $15K to $24.9K continued to trend down and was almost as low as for those earning less than $15K.”
Peterson added: “Consumers were likely rattled by the financial market turmoil in early August, as they were less upbeat about the stock market. In August, 46.9% of consumers expected stock prices to increase over the year ahead (down from 50.6% in July), while 27.2% expected a decrease (up from 23.1%). August’s write-in responses also included more mentions of stock prices and unemployment as affecting consumer’s views of the US economy. However, consumers did not change their views about a possible recession: the proportion of consumers predicting a recession was stable and well below the 2023 peak.”
Background on the Consumer Confidence Index
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index measures the consumers attitudes and confidence in the economy, business conditions, and labor market, with higher readings indicating higher optimism. The general assumption is that when consumers are more optimistic they will spend more and stimulate economic growth. However, if consumers are pessimistic then spending will decline and the economy may slow down. The index is based on a 5 question survey, with 2 questions related to present conditions and 3 questions related to future expectations. The survey began in 1967 and was conducted every two months but changed to monthly reporting in 1977, which is where our data begins.
