An Inside Look at the Q4 2023 GDP Advance Estimate

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents: personal consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment, net exports, and government consumption expenditures. In the latest Q4 2023 advance estimate update it was reported that real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.3%. All four components made positive contributions.

Last 4 quarters contributions to GDP Percent Change
  • Gross private domestic investment (GPDI) contributed 0.56
    • Down from Q3 final estimate
  • Government consumption expenditures (GCE) contributed 0.38
    • Down from Q3 final estimate
  • Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) contributed 1.91
    • Down from Q3 final estimate
  • Net exports of goods and services (NEGS) contributed 0.43
    • Up from Q3 final estimate

Over time, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) component has shown the most consistent correlation with real GDP. When PCE has been positive, GDP has usually been positive, and vice versa (although this was not the case in Q2 2022).