ADP National Employment Report: 103K Private Jobs Added in November
The economic mover and shaker this week is Friday's employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This monthly report contains a wealth of data for economists, the most publicized being the month-over-month change in Total Nonfarm Employment (the PAYEMS series in the FRED repository). However, each month a few days before we receive the highly anticipated jobs report, ADP releases their data on new nonfarm private jobs.
The ADP employment report showed that 103K nonfarm private jobs were added in November, a slight slow down from the 106K private jobs added in October. The latest figure is lower than the expected 130K new private jobs and is the second smallest monthly increase since January 2021.
The forecast for the forthcoming BLS report is that 155,000 private nonfarm jobs were added in November. However, the forecast for the full nonfarm jobs (the PAYEMS number) is for 180,000 jobs to have been added. Here is a visualization of the two series over the past twelve months.
Here is an excerpt from today's ADP report press release:
“Restaurants and hotels were the biggest job creators during the post-pandemic recovery,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “But that boost is behind us, and the return to trend in leisure and hospitality suggests the economy as a whole will see more moderate hiring and wage growth in 2024.”
Here is a snapshot of the monthly change in the ADP headline number since the company's earliest published data with the new methodology in 2010. This is quite a volatile series, so we've plotted the monthly data points as dots along with a six-month moving average, which gives us a clearer sense of the trend. The latest six-month moving average is 208,000, down from last month's 235,000.
As we see in the chart above, the trend peaked in September 2015 and then went negative for the first time in late 2019, just before the NBER declared a recession start. The COVID-19 pandemic has brought employment numbers down to levels we have never seen this century. The trend reached a new high in 2021 at 778,000 and has recently dropped back to pre-pandemic levels.