The headline for this morning's release of the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index (CFNAI) reads "Index points to a pickup in economic growth in July".
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.12 in July from -0.33 in June. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from June. Two of the four categories made positive contributions in July. For a more detailed perspective on long-term economic trends, see our latest Understanding the CFNAI Components.
Background on the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)
The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index is a monthly indicator designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. It is a composite of 85 monthly indicators as explained in this background PDF file on the Chicago Fed's website. The index is constructed so a zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth. Negative values indicate below-average growth, and positive values indicate above-average growth.
The first chart below shows the recent behavior of the index since 2007 with a callout to the past year. The green dots show the indicator itself, which is quite noisy. The three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) is more useful and consistent as an indicator of the actual trend for economic activity. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, inched up to -0.13 in July from -0.15 in June.
For a broad historical context, here is the complete CFNAI historical series dating from March 1967.
The next chart highlights the +0.7 and -0.7 levels. The two callouts explain the significance of these parameters according to the Chicago Fed.
The next chart includes an overlay of GDP, which reinforces the accuracy of the CFNAI as an indicator of coincident economic activity.
CFNAI Volatility
Here's a chart of the CFNAI without the MA3 overlay — for the purpose of highlighting the high inter-month volatility.
Further underscoring the volatility is the roller-coaster list of CFNAI monthly headlines from the last couple of years.
The Long-Term Economic Trend in the CFNAI
In the final chart, I've let Excel draw a linear regression through the CFNAI data series. The slope confirms the casual impression of the previous charts that national activity, as a function of the 85 indicators in the index, has been declining since its inception in the late 1960s, a trend that roughly coincides with the transition from a good-producing to a post-industrial service economy in the information age.
This article was originally written by Doug Short. From 2016-2022, it was improved upon and updated by Jill Mislinski. Starting in January 2023, AP Charts pages will be maintained by Jennifer Nash at VettaFi | Advisor Perspectives
Read more updates by Jen Nash
