Q1 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at -1.4%, Worse Than Forecast

The Advance Estimate for Q1 GDP, to one decimal, came in at -1.4% (-1.41% to two decimal places), a decrease from 6.9% (6.89% to two decimal places) for the Q4 Third Estimate. Investing.com had a consensus of 1.1%.

Here is the slightly abbreviated opening text from the Bureau of Economic Analysis news release:

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the first quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 6.9 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (refer to "Source Data for the Advance Estimate" on page 3). The "second" estimate for the first quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on May 26, 2022. [Full Release]

Here is a look at Quarterly GDP since Q2 1947. Prior to 1947, GDP was an annual calculation. To be more precise, the chart shows is the annualized percentage change from the preceding quarter in Real (inflation-adjusted) Gross Domestic Product. We've also included recessions, which are determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Also illustrated are the 3.18% average (arithmetic mean) and the 10-year moving average, currently at 2.31%.

Quarterly GDP since 1947

Here is a log-scale chart of real GDP with an exponential regression, which helps us understand growth cycles since the 1947 inception of quarterly GDP. The latest number puts us 14.6% below trend.

with a Regression

A particularly telling representation of slowing growth in the US economy is the year-over-year rate of change. The average rate at the start of recessions is 3.29%. All twelve recessions over this timeframe have begun at a lower level of current real YoY GDP.

Real GDP Year-over-Year

In summary, the Q1 GDP Advance Estimate of -1.4% was below forecast and a significant decrease from Q4 GDP.

Other GDP updates (updated after GDP monthly piece):

Real GDP Per Capita

Visualizing GDP

Read more updates by Jill Mislinski