Consumer Price Index: July Headline at 2.95%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the July Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 2.95%, up from 2.87% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 2.25%, up from the previous month's 2.26% and above the Fed's 2% PCE target.
Here is the introduction from the BLS summary, which leads with the seasonally adjusted monthly data:
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.1 percent in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The index for shelter rose 0.3 percent in July and accounted for nearly 60 percent of the seasonally adjusted monthly increase in the all items index. The food index rose slightly in July, with major grocery store food group indexes mixed. The energy index fell 0.5 percent, as all the major component indexes declined.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in July, the same increase as in May and June. Along with the shelter index, the indexes for used cars and trucks, airline fares, new vehicles, household furnishings and operations, and recreation all increased. The indexes for medical care and for apparel both declined in July.
The all items index rose 2.9 percent for the 12 months ending July, the same increase as for the period ending June. The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.4 percent for the 12 months ending July; this was the largest 12-month increase since the period ending September 2008. The food index increased 1.4 percent over the last 12 months, and the energy index rose 12.1 percent. [More…]
Investing.com was looking for a 0.2% MoM change in seasonally adjusted Headline CPI and 0.2% in Core CPI. Year-over-year forecasts were 3.0% for Headline and 2.3% for Core.
The first chart is an overlay of Headline CPI and Core CPI (the latter excludes Food and Energy) since the turn of the century. The highlighted two percent level is the Federal Reserve's Core inflation target for the CPI's cousin index, the BEA's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.
The next chart shows both series since 1957, the year the government first began tracking Core Inflation.
In the wake of the Great Recession, two percent has been the Fed's target for core inflation. However, at their December 2012 FOMC meeting, the inflation ceiling was raised to 2.5% while their accommodative measures (low Fed Funds Rate and quantitative easing) were in place. They have since reverted to the two percent target in their various FOMC documents.
Federal Reserve policy, which in recent history has focused on core inflation measured by the core PCE Price Index, will see that the more familiar core CPI is now above the PCE target range of 2 percent.