The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for June was released this morning. Headline sales came in at 0.5% month-over-month to one decimal and was at the Investing.com consensus. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at 0.39% MoM (to two decimals). Revisions were made to April and May figures.

Here is the introduction from today's report:

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2018, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $506.8 billion, an increase of 0.5 percent (±0.4 percent) from the previous month, and 6.6 percent (±0.5 percent) above June 2017. Total sales for the April 2018 through June 2018 period were up 5.9 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The April 2018 to May 2018 percent change was revised from up 0.8 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 1.3 percent (±0.2 percent).

Retail trade sales were up 0.3 percent (±0.5 percent)* from May 2018, and 6.4 percent (±0.5 percent) above last year. Gasoline Stations were up 21.6 percent (±1.6 percent) from June 2017, while Nonstore Retailers were up 10.2 percent (±1.4 percent) from last year. [view full report]

The chart below is a log-scale snapshot of retail sales since the early 1990s. The two exponential regressions through the data help us to evaluate the long-term trend of this key economic indicator.

Retail Sales Trends

The year-over-year percent change provides another perspective on the historical trend. Here is the headline series.

Retail Sales YoY

Core Sales

Here is the year-over-year version of Core Retail Sales.

Core Retail Sales YoY