Consumer Price Index: June Headline at 2.87%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the June Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 2.87%, up from 2.80% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 2.26%, up from the previous month's 2.24% and above the Fed's 2% PCE target.
Here is the introduction from the BLS summary, which leads with the seasonally adjusted monthly data:
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in June on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.2 percent in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The indexes for shelter, gasoline, and food all rose to lead to the seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index. The food index increased 0.2 percent in June, with the indexes for food at home and food away from home both rising 0.2 percent. Despite a 0.5-percent increase in the gasoline index, the energy index declined 0.3 percent, with the indexes for electricity and natural gas both falling.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in June. The shelter index rose 0.1 percent, and the indexes for medical care, used cars and trucks, new vehicles, and recreation all increased. The indexes for apparel, airline fares, and household furnishings and operations all declined in June.
The all items index rose 2.9 percent for the 12 months ending June; this was the largest 12-month increase since the period ending February 2012. The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.3 percent for the 12 months ending June. The food index increased 1.4 percent, and the energy index rose 12.0 percent, its largest 12-month increase since the period ending February 2017. [More…]
Investing.com was looking for a 0.2% MoM change in seasonally adjusted Headline CPI and 0.2% in Core CPI. Year-over-year forecasts were 2.9% for Headline and 2.3% for Core.
The first chart is an overlay of Headline CPI and Core CPI (the latter excludes Food and Energy) since the turn of the century. The highlighted two percent level is the Federal Reserve's Core inflation target for the CPI's cousin index, the BEA's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.
The next chart shows both series since 1957, the year the government first began tracking Core Inflation.
In the wake of the Great Recession, two percent has been the Fed's target for core inflation. However, at their December 2012 FOMC meeting, the inflation ceiling was raised to 2.5% while their accommodative measures (low Fed Funds Rate and quantitative easing) were in place. They have since reverted to the two percent target in their various FOMC documents.
Federal Reserve policy, which in recent history has focused on core inflation measured by the core PCE Price Index, will see that the more familiar core CPI is now above the PCE target range of 2 percent.