The June US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 55.4, down from the 56.4 final May figure. Markit's Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.

Here is an excerpt from Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit in their latest press release:

“The PMI for June rounds off the best quarter for manufacturing for almost four years, but also fires some warning shots about what lies ahead. As such, the second quarter could represent a peak in the production cycle.

“The survey has a good track record of accurately anticipating changes in the official manufacturing output data, and suggests the goods-producing sector is growing at an annualised rate of around 2.5%. [Press Release]

Here is a snapshot of the series since mid-2012.

Markit Manufacturing PMI

Here is an overlay with the equivalent PMI survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management (see our full article on this series here, note that ).

Markit and ISM Manufacturing PMI

The next chart uses a three-month moving average of the two rather volatile series to facilitate our understanding of the current trend.

Markit and ISM Manufacturing PMI

Read more updates by Jill Mislinski