ISM Manufacturing Index: Expanding Business Strength in May
Today the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for May. The latest headline Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 58.7 percent, an increase of 1.4 percent from 57.3 the previous month. Today's headline number was above the Investing.com forecast of 58.2 percent.
Here is the key analysis from the report:
"The May PMI® registered 58.7 percent, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from the April reading of 57.3 percent. The New Orders Index registered 63.7 percent, an increase of 2.5 percentage points from the April reading of 61.2 percent. The Production Index registered 61.5 percent, a 4.3 percentage point increase compared to the April reading of 57.2 percent. The Employment Index registered 56.3 percent, an increase of 2.1 percentage points from the April reading of 54.2 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 62 percent, a 0.9 percentage point increase from the April reading of 61.1 percent. The Inventories Index registered 50.2 percent, a decrease of 2.7 percentage points from the April reading of 52.9 percent. The Prices Index registered 79.5 percent in May, a 0.2 percentage point increase from the April reading of 79.3 percent, indicating higher raw materials prices for the 27th consecutive month."
Here is the table of PMI components.
The chart below shows the Manufacturing Composite series, which stretches back to 1948. The eleven recessions during this time frame are indicated along with the index value the month before the recession starts.
For a diffusion index, the latest reading of 57.3 is its twentieth consecutive month of expansion. What sort of correlation does that have with the months before the start of recessions? Check out the red dots in the chart above.