The economic mover and shaker this week is Friday's employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This monthly report contains a wealth of data for economists, the most publicized being the month-over-month change in Total Nonfarm Employment (the PAYEMS series in the FRED repository). Today we have the ADP April estimate of 204K new nonfarm private employment jobs, a decrease over March's revised 228K.

The 204K estimate came in above the Investing.com consensus of 200K for the ADP number.

The Investing.com forecast for the forthcoming BLS report is for 194K nonfarm private new jobs and the unemployment rate to decrease to 4.0%. Their forecast for the April full nonfarm new jobs is (the PAYEMS number) is 192K.

Here is an excerpt from today's ADP report press release:

“The labor market continues to maintain a steady pace of strong job growth with little sign of a slowdown,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “However, as the labor pool tightens it will become increasingly difficult for employers to find skilled talent. Job gains in the highskilled professional and business services industry accounted for more than half of all jobs added this month. The construction industry, which also relies on skilled labor, continued its six month trend of steady job gains as well.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Despite rising trade tensions, more volatile financial markets, and poor weather, businesses are adding a robust more than 200,000 jobs per month. At this pace, unemployment will soon be in the threes, which is rarified and risky territory, as the economy threatens to overheat.”

Here is a visualization of the two series over the previous twelve months.


The next update to this report will be on May 30.


Here's our list of monthly employment updates:

Employment Situation Report

Unemployment Claims

Civilian Labor Force, Unemployment Claims, and the Business Cycle

Labor Market Conditions Index

Long-Term Trends by Age Group

Aging Work Force

Ratio of Part-Time and Full-Time Employment

Multiple Jobholders

Workforce Recovery Since Recession

Read more updates by Jill Mislinksi