The economic mover and shaker this week is Friday's employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This monthly report contains a wealth of data for economists, the most publicized being the month-over-month change in Total Nonfarm Employment (the PAYEMS series in the FRED repository). Today we have the ADP February estimate of 235K new nonfarm private employment jobs, a decrease over February's revised 244K.

The 235K estimate came in above the consensus of 195K for the ADP number.

The forecast for the forthcoming BLS report is for 191K nonfarm private new jobs and the unemployment rate to decrease to 4.0%. Their forecast for the February full nonfarm new jobs is (the PAYEMS number) is 200K.

Here is an excerpt from today's ADP report press release:

“The labor market continues to experience uninterrupted growth,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “We see persistent gains across most industries with leisure and hospitality and retail leading the way as consumer spending kicked up. At this pace of job growth employers will soon become hard-pressed to find qualified workers.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The job market is red hot and threatens to overheat. With government spending increases and tax cuts, growth is set to accelerate.”

Here is a visualization of the two series over the previous twelve months.

The next update to this report will be on April 4.

Here's our list of monthly employment updates:

Employment Situation Report

Unemployment Claims

Civilian Labor Force, Unemployment Claims, and the Business Cycle

Labor Market Conditions Index

Long-Term Trends by Age Group

Aging Work Force

Ratio of Part-Time and Full-Time Employment

Multiple Jobholders

Workforce Recovery Since Recession