The economic mover and shaker this week is Friday's employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This monthly report contains a wealth of data for economists, the most publicized being the month-over-month change in Total Nonfarm Employment (the PAYEMS series in the FRED repository). Today we have the ADP January estimate of 234K new nonfarm private employment jobs, a decrease over December's revised 242K.

The 234K estimate came in above the Investing.com consensus of 186K for the ADP number.

The Investing.com forecast for the forthcoming BLS report is for 184K nonfarm new jobs (the actual PAYEMS number) and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.1%.

Here is an excerpt from today's ADP report:

“We’ve kicked off the year with another month of unyielding job gains,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Service providers were firing on all cylinders, posting their strongest gain in more than a year. We also saw robust hiring from midsize and large companies, while job growth in smaller firms slowed slightly.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The job market juggernaut marches on. Given the strong January job gain, 2018 is on track to be the eighth consecutive year in which the economy creates over 2 million jobs. If it falls short, it is likely because businesses can’t find workers to fill all the open job positions.”

Here is a visualization of the two series over the previous twelve months.

The key difference between the two series is that the BLS series is for Nonfarm Payrolls while ADP tracks private employment.


Here's our list of monthly employment updates:

Employment Situation Report

Unemployment Claims

Civilian Labor Force, Unemployment Claims, and the Business Cycle

Labor Market Conditions Index

Long-Term Trends by Age Group

Aging Work Force

Ratio of Part-Time and Full-Time Employment

Multiple Jobholders

Workforce Recovery Since Recession