Richmond Fed Manufacturing: Slowing Growth in January

Today the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Composite Index was at 14 for the month of January, down from last month's 20. had forecast 19. Because of the highly volatile nature of this index, we include a 3-month moving average to facilitate the identification of trends, now at 21.3, which indicates expansion. The complete data series behind today's Richmond Fed manufacturing report, which dates from November 1993, is available here.

Here is a snapshot of the complete Richmond Fed Manufacturing Composite series.

Richmond Fed Manufacturing

Here is the latest Richmond Fed manufacturing overview.

According to the latest survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Fifth District manufacturing firms saw slower growth in January, even as each of the expansion metrics remained positive. The composite index moved down from 20 to 14. This decrease resulted from a decline in the metrics for both shipments and employment. The third component, new orders, held steady. However, manufacturing firms saw an increase in backlogs in January, after a decrease in December, as the index rose from −4 to 5. Firms reported that they expect growth to strengthen in the coming months.

District manufacturing firms saw continued price increases in January. However, prices received grew at a slower rate than they had in December, while increases in prices paid was unchanged. Firms expect prices to rise at a faster rate in the next six months, although expectations of price growth were below their December values. Link to Report

Here is a somewhat closer look at the index since the turn of the century.

since 2000

Is today's Richmond composite a clue of what to expect in the next PMI composite? We'll find out when the next ISM Manufacturing survey is released (below).