November Retail Sales: Up 0.8% MoM, Better Than Forecast

The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for November released this morning showed an increase over the October figures. Headline sales came in at 0.8% month-over-month to one decimal. Today's headline number was above the Investing.com consensus of 0.3%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at 1.0% MoM. September and October figures were revised.

Here is the introduction from today's report:

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2017, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $492.7 billion, an increase of 0.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and 5.8 percent (±0.7 percent) above November 2016. Total sales for the September 2017 through November 2017 period were up 5.2 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The September 2017 to October 2017 percent change was revised from up 0.2 percent (±0.5 percent)* to up 0.5 percent (±0.2 percent).

Retail trade sales were up 0.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from October 2017, and were up 6.3 percent (±0.7 percent) from last year. Gasoline Stations were up 12.2 percent (±1.4 percent) from November 2016, while Building Materials and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers were up 10.7 percent (±2.1 percent) from last year. [view full report]

The chart below is a log-scale snapshot of retail sales since the early 1990s. The two exponential regressions through the data help us to evaluate the long-term trend of this key economic indicator.

Retail Sales Trends

The year-over-year percent change provides another perspective on the historical trend. Here is the headline series.

Retail Sales YoY

Core Sales

Here is the year-over-year version of Core Retail Sales.

Core Retail Sales YoY