Consumer Price Index: November Headline at 2.2%, Core Remains Below 2%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the November Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 2.20%, up from 2.04% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 1.71%, down from the previous month's 1.77%.

Here is the introduction from the BLS summary, which leads with the seasonally adjusted monthly data:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.2 percent.

The energy index rose 3.9 percent and accounted for about three-fourths of the all items increase. The gasoline index increased 7.3 percent, and the other energy component indexes also rose. The food index was unchanged in November, with the index for food at home declining slightly.

The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in November. The shelter index continued to rise, and the indexes for motor vehicle insurance, used cars and trucks, and new vehicles also increased. The indexes for apparel, airline fares, and household furnishings and operations all declined in November.

The all items index rose 2.2 percent for the 12 months ending November. The index for all items less food and energy rose 1.7 percent, a slight decline from the 1.8-percent increase for the period ending October. The energy index rose 9.4 percent over the last 12 months, and the food index rose 1.4 percent. [More…]

Investing.com was looking for a 0.4% increase MoM in seasonally adjusted Headline CPI and 0.2% in Core CPI. Year-over-year forecasts were 2.2% for Headline and 1.8% for Core.

The first chart is an overlay of Headline CPI and Core CPI (the latter excludes Food and Energy) since the turn of the century. The highlighted two percent level is the Federal Reserve's Core inflation target for the CPI's cousin index, the BEA's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.

Headline and Core CPI since 2000

The next chart shows both series since 1957, the year the government first began tracking Core Inflation.

Headline and Core CPI

In the wake of the Great Recession, two percent has been the Fed's target for core inflation. However, at their December 2012 FOMC meeting, the inflation ceiling was raised to 2.5% while their accommodative measures (low Fed Funds Rate and quantitative easing) were in place. They have since reverted to the two percent target in their various FOMC documents.

Federal Reserve policy, which in recent history has focused on core inflation measured by the core PCE Price Index, will see that the more familiar core CPI is below the PCE target range of 2 percent.