Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective

Let's have a look at a long-term perspective on Treasury yields as of today's close. The chart below shows the 10-Year Constant Maturity yield since 1962 along with the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) and inflation. The range has been astonishing. The stagflation that set in after the 1973 Oil Embargo was finally ended after Paul Volcker raised the FFR to 20.06%.

The last couple of years have been remarkable ones for yields. The 10-year note hit its historic closing low of 1.37% in July of 2016 and then rose 125 BPs to its 2017 closing high of 2.62% in mid-March. The yield on the 10-year note to date has dropped to 2.40% as of today's close.

Now let's overlay the S&P 500 to see historical pattern of equities versus treasuries. This is a nominal chart, which significantly distorted the real value of both yields and equity prices.