U.S. Workforce Recovery
We've updated our monthly workforce analysis to include last week's Employment Report for September. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, and the number of new nonfarm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at -33K.
The Unemployment Rate
The closely watched headline unemployment rate is a calculation of the percentage of the Civilian Labor Force, age 16 and older, that is currently unemployed. Let's put this metric into its historical context. The first chart below illustrates this monthly data point since 1990.
In the latest report, this indicator fell to 4.2%. The age 16+ population increased by 205 thousand, and the labor force (the employed and unemployed actively seeking employment) increased by 575 thousand. The number of employed increased by 906 thousand and the ranks of the unemployed decreased by 331 thousand.
Unemployment in the Prime Age Group
Let's look at the same statistic for the core workforce, ages 25-54. This cohort leaves out the employment volatility of the high-school and college years, the lower employment of the retirement years and also the age 55-64 decade when many in the workforce begin transitioning to retirement ... for example, two income households that downsize into one-income households.
In the latest report, this indicator fell to 3.6% (to one decimal place) from the previous month. The cohort population increased by 32 thousand and the labor force increased by 257 thousand. The breakdown of the growth is an increase of 663 thousand employed and a 406 thousand decrease in the unemployed. Most of the increased labor force growth was due to the increase in the number employed and the low population increase.