Q2 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at 2.6%

The Advance Estimate for Q2 GDP, to one decimal, came in at 2.6% (2.57% to two decimal places), an increase over 1.2% for the Q1 Third Estimate. Investing.com had a consensus of 2.6%. Major annual revisions were made going back to Q1 of 2014.

Here is the slightly abbreviated opening text from the Bureau of Economic Analysis news release:

Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the second quarter of 2017 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.2 percent (revised).

The Bureau emphasized that the second-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see “Source Data for the Advance Estimate” on page 3). The "second" estimate for the second quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on August 30, 2017. [Full Release]

Here is a look at Quarterly GDP since Q2 1947. Prior to 1947, GDP was an annual calculation. To be more precise, the chart shows is the annualized percentage change from the preceding quarter in Real (inflation-adjusted) Gross Domestic Product. We've also included recessions, which are determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Also illustrated are the 3.22% average (arithmetic mean) and the 10-year moving average, currently at 1.41%.

Quarterly GDP since 1947

Here is a log-scale chart of real GDP with an exponential regression, which helps us understand growth cycles since the 1947 inception of quarterly GDP. The latest number puts us 14.8% below trend.

with a Regression

Here is a chart of the annual revisions made going back to Q1 2014.