Consumer Price Index: Core CPI At 1.9%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the April Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 2.20%, down from 2.38% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 1.88%, down from the previous month's 2.00%.
Here is the introduction from the BLS summary, which leads with the seasonally adjusted monthly data:
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Increases in indexes for shelter, energy, tobacco, and food all contributed to the monthly increase in the all items index. The energy index rose 1.1 percent, with all 3 of its major component indexes rising. The food index rose 0.2 percent, mostly due to a sharp increase in the index for fresh vegetables.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in April after declining in March. The shelter index increased 0.3 percent, and the tobacco index increased sharply over the month. However, many indexes declined in April, including those for wireless phone services, medical care, motor vehicle insurance, apparel, used cars and trucks, recreation, and new vehicles.
The all items index rose 2.2 percent for the 12 months ending April. While a smaller increase than the 2.4 percent rise for the 12 months ending March, this is still a larger rise than the 1.7 percent average annual increase over the past 10 years. The index for all items less food and energy rose 1.9 percent over the last 12 months; this compares to a 1.8 percent average annual increase over the past decade. The energy index rose 9.3 percent over the last year, while the food index increased 0.5 percent. [More…]
Investing.com was looking for a 0.2% increase MoM in seasonally adjusted Headline CPI and 0.2% in Core CPI. Year-over-year forecasts were 2.3% for Headline and 2.0% for Core.
The first chart is an overlay of Headline CPI and Core CPI (the latter excludes Food and Energy) since the turn of the century. The highlighted two percent level is the Federal Reserve's Core inflation target for the CPI's cousin index, the BEA's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.
The next chart shows both series since 1957, the year the government first began tracking Core Inflation.
In the wake of the Great Recession, two percent has been the Fed's target for core inflation. However, at their December 2012 FOMC meeting, the inflation ceiling was raised to 2.5% while their accommodative measures (low Fed Funds Rate and quantitative easing) were in place. They have since reverted to the two percent target in their various FOMC documents.
Federal Reserve policy, which in recent history has focused on core inflation measured by the core PCE Price Index, will see that the more familiar core CPI is currently at the PCE target range of 2 percent.