Kansas City Fed Survey: Activity Strength Continues, Expected Activity Highest Ever

The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey business conditions indicator measures activity in the following states: Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming, western Missouri, and northern New Mexico.

Quarterly data for this indicator dates back to 1995, but monthly data is only available from 2001. New seasonal adjustment factors were introduced in January 2017 and slight revisions were made to previous data as a result.

Here is an excerpt from the latest report:

KANSAS CITY, Mo. –The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the March Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District manufacturing activity strengthened further with strong expectations for future activity.

“Our composite index accelerated again, and has only been higher one time in the last 15 years,” said Wilkerson. “The future employment index was the strongest in the 23-year history of the survey.” [Full PDF release here]

Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.

Kansas City Manufacturing Composite

The next chart is an overlay of the general and future outlook indexes — the outlook six months ahead. Future factory indexes increased in February to 32 from last month's 29. It is currently at its highest ever in the series.

For comparison, here is the latest ISM Manufacturing survey.

ISM Manufacturing PMI