First Look at February Employment: ADP Says 298K New Nonfarm Private Jobs
The economic mover and shaker this week is Friday's employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This monthly report contains a wealth of data for economists, the most publicized being the month-over-month change in Total Nonfarm Employment (the PAYEMS series in the FRED repository). Today we have the ADP February estimate of 298K new nonfarm private employment jobs, a significant increase over January's 261K, which was an upward revision of 15K. Revisions were made through December 2016 based on ADP and revised payroll data.
The 298K estimate came in well above the Investing.com consensus of 190K for the ADP number.
The Investing.com forecast for the forthcoming BLS report is also for 190K nonfarm new jobs (the actual PAYEMS number) and the unemployment rate to remain tick down to 4.7%.
Here is an excerpt from today's ADP report:
“February proved to be an incredibly strong month for employment with increases we have not seen in years,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Gains were driven by a surge in the goods sector, while we also saw the information industry experience a notable increase.”
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics said, “February was a very good month for workers. Powering job growth were the construction, mining and manufacturing industries. Unseasonably mild winter weather undoubtedly played a role. But near record high job openings and record low layoffs underpin the entire job market.”
Here is a visualization of the two series over the previous twelve months.
The key difference between the two series is that the BLS series is for Nonfarm Payrolls while ADP tracks private employment.
Here's our list of monthly employment updates: