Large-cap stocks may be better built for 5% Treasury yields than their smaller rivals, according to State Street Investment Management’s quarterly outlook. The 10-year yield climbed 0.81 percentage points last quarter to 5.28%, a near 20-year high.
Key Takeaways:
- The 30-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since 2002 during the third quarter.
- Hyperscalers are on track to invest more than $700 billion this year, as the AI buildout continues.
- 10-year Treasury yields could reach 5.47% by September 2027, under current forecasts.
Further out, the 30-year yield hit its highest level since 2002. State Street tied the move to higher real, or inflation-adjusted, yields, fueled by deficits, heavy Treasury supply and AI-related borrowing.
Higher yields typically weigh on stock valuations. But State Street said “higher rates need not derail equities when accompanied by resilient growth and earnings, but they raise the bar for fundamentals.” With valuations unlikely to expand, returns will hinge on earnings growing fast enough to cover higher borrowing costs.
State Street expects market leadership to shift away from small-caps. Large-cap growth firms generally have stronger balance sheets, better access to capital and more exposure to AI spending. By contrast, smaller companies carry more refinancing risk and floating-rate debt, whose costs rise with rates.
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At the same time, inflation is adding to the pressure, with headline consumer prices up 3.4%. State Street expects the Federal Reserve to follow its September rate hike with another in December. It also sees the 10-year yield at 5.47% by September 2027.
The key, according to the firm, is “identifying where earnings growth can outrun a higher cost of capital.” That environment “favors scale, quality, innovation, and balance-sheet strength.”
Large-Cap Tech and the AI Buildout
AI spending is one reason State Street remains positive on stocks, with the U.S. its preferred market. The largest U.S. hyperscalers, or cloud computing giants, are on track to invest more than $700 billion this year.
Corporate profits have kept up so far. U.S. companies beat second-quarter earnings estimates by the widest margin since at least 2016, FactSet data in the report showed.
Nvidia Corp. (NVDA), Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) lead the State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK). Together, they made up 40.59% of the $126 billion fund as of October 28, according to State Street. Its holdings also carry an estimated three- to five-year earnings growth rate of 31.99%.
Some of the AI buildout now runs on borrowed money. Markets have absorbed about $225 billion of hyperscaler debt in 2026, the report said. AI-related debt issuance worldwide totals $450 billion to $600 billion this year. Spreads on hyperscaler bonds, or the extra yield investors demand over Treasuries, have widened amid that issuance.
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Originally posted on ETF Trends
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