The Real Winners of the Venezuela Oil Deal

The administration calls this a re-establishment of the Monroe Doctrine, the framework I wrote about last December. On that count, they’re not wrong. China had been buying roughly 80% of Venezuela’s exports at steep discounts. That appears to be over.

Rich in Reserves, Poor in Production

Many of you reading this are no doubt aware that Venezuela sits on more proven crude oil than any country on earth—roughly 202 billion barrels, or about a fifth of the world’s total. It ranks ahead of Saudi Arabia, Iran and Canada.

And yet Venezuela produces only 1.2 million barrels a day, down from a peak of around 3.5 million in the late 1990s. Almost none of it reaches an American refinery anymore.

In the chart, look at the dark blue part. In October 1998, U.S. refiners took in 1.6 million barrels a day of Venezuelan crude. By mid-2020, it was zero, and it stayed at exactly zero for 43 consecutive months. This year, it’s averaging about 140,000 barrels a day.

Canada, meanwhile, took the whole thing. My home country went from around 1.1 million barrels a day in the late 1990s to nearly 4 million today. It now supplies roughly two-thirds of all crude oil we import.

Not because of politics, but because of chemistry and money.

Venezuela’s oil is notoriously heavy and sour. David Levine, an economics professor of UC Berkeley’s Hass School, describes it as having the consistency of cold peanut butter. To move it through a pipe, you have to blend it with imported diluents like naphtha, which adds about $15 a barrel before it ever reaches a port. It’s loaded with sulfur and metals that corrode equipment and poison catalysts. It sells at a $12 to $20 discount to Brent for good reason.

Then there’s the human problem. Venezuela’s petroleum engineers all left. They’re in Houston, Calgary and Bogota now. Levine estimates it will take 10 to 15 years to rebuild that kind of workforce. You can wire $100 billion into a country in a week, but you can’t conjure a generation of engineers in the same amount of time.

Rystad Energy estimates that Venezuela could technically return to 3 million barrels a day by around 2040, with roughly $183 billion of investment starting now. Are you willing to wait that long?

The Bottleneck Moved Downstream

Even if Venezuela’s crude showed up tomorrow, we’d have a hard time doing much with it.

American refineries are running at 96% utilization, the most sustained maximum-capacity stretch in more than a quarter century. Running plants this hard for this long is how you risk getting major mechanical failures.

Meanwhile, up to 3 million barrels a day of throughput capacity is scheduled to come offline for maintenance before year-end, against a backdrop where wars in Iran, Russia and elsewhere have knocked out at least 5 million barrels a day of fuel supply.

So why isn’t anyone building more refineries?

President Donald Trump asked executives that exact question at the White House this week. The answer is uncomfortable but honest. Owning a refinery in the U.S. right now is enormously profitable.

Building one isn’t.

These are 40-year assets, and the operators don’t believe today’s margins last 40 years. They’re not wrong to be skeptical. The last major U.S. refinery was completed in Garyville, Louisiana, in 1976.

In other words, the scare thing isn’t oil in the ground. It’s the ability to turn oil into diesel and gasoline.

Who Actually Shows Up

So who will be operating in Venezuela?

Chevron has been in the country since 1923, and it just expanded its position with additional Orinoco Belt acreage, committing over $7 billion across five years to roughly double production to 600,000 barrels a day at total costs under $20 a barrel.

ExxonMobil, meanwhile, has stayed on the sidelines, exactly as CEO Darren Woods said it would back in January when he called Venezuela uninvestable absent serious legal reforms. He took heat for that.

Eight months later, Exxon and ConocoPhillips are still out. That’s precisely why Washington had to construct a state-backed private vehicle to get anything moving at all.

The Diesel Shock Has Arrived

Back in December, when Brent was down more than 20%, I wrote that diesel-driven inflation risk was being badly underpriced.

Diesel is now at an all-time high, and it’s showing up everywhere, because diesel moves food, freight, farm equipment and everything else in the physical economy.

It’s also showing up in bonds. Long-dated government debt is selling off worldwide. German, U.K. and Japanese 10-year yields recently hit their highest levels since 2011, 2008 and 1996, respectively.

Add in a Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) sitting at 286.6 million barrels, the lowest since 1982, and you have less cushion than at any point in my career.

When governments underestimate inflation, they react late and overcorrect. That’s rarely been good for financial assets, but it’s historically been very good for real ones like oil and, of course, gold.

Airlines and Shipping

Strengths

• The best-performing airline stock for the week was Air Canada, up 4.3%. Lufthansa notes that (1) the pricing outlook is promising, and Lufthansa is on track to deliver the required mid- to high-single-digit % RASK growth versus the prior year in H2. (2) Accelerating North America RASK growth into Q3 is helping to offset the normalization in the previously very strong APAC pricing, according to J.P. Morgan.
• For STO Express in the second quarter (2Q), the company reported that recurring net profit surged 165% and 180% year-over-year (YoY), respectively, off a low base last year. The company’s interim earnings pre-announcement had implied 2Q reported and recurring net profit growth ranges of 126%–177% and 136%–190% YoY, respectively. Actual growth landed at the upper end of both guided ranges, according to UBS.
• Frontier Airlines, a wholly owned subsidiary of Frontier Group Holdings, entered into an agreement with lessors of 13 A320neo aircraft currently in operation to terminate the leases associated with such aircraft, which were otherwise scheduled to expire in the next six to seven years. The 13 aircraft are scheduled to be returned during H2 2026, resulting in an expected reduction of $260 million in both the company’s operating lease right-of-use assets and operating lease liabilities, as well as the elimination of meaningful maintenance-related costs that exceed the early lease termination costs.

Weaknesses

• The worst-performing airline stock for the week was Expedia, down 9.5%. Jet fuel prices are increasing at a much faster pace than crude and are now at $4.30 per gallon. Since the start of the conflict in the Middle East, WTI prices are up $19 per barrel, or 27%. Over the same period, the Gulf Coast jet fuel crack (jet fuel price minus WTI price) has increased by 190%. There has been a roughly $53-per-barrel increase in the jet fuel crack.
• For Cosco Shipping, Goldman estimates recurring net profit was Rmb7.3 billion in 2Q26, up 25% year-over-year (YoY) and 25% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ), which missed market expectations. Goldman attributes the miss to a higher-than-expected long-term contract mix (70%–75% versus the usual 50%–60%) for EU routes, which account for 17% of revenue. These contracts were negotiated in November–December 2025, with rates just above the break-even line, as shipping lines were conservative about the following year’s outlook at the time.
• Airline throughput fell 3.8% year-over-year (YoY) in August, versus a 0.3% decline in seats. The broader softness is likely due to a combination of customer elasticity in response to higher pricing and the possibility that Spirit’s more price-sensitive travelers are not flying, according to TD.

Opportunities

• According to United Airlines, price leaders are still pushing for higher fares, and there is room for further increases. United sees significant value in maintaining an investment-grade rating and will not increase share buybacks until it achieves that status. Debt paydown is currently the top priority. The airline has a large number of new B787 aircraft entering its fleet, which is driving international growth. Higher labor and airport costs are making it more difficult for low-cost carriers (LCCs) to operate, improving the overall industry structure.
• Oil tanker spot rates are expected to surge about 37% to $300,000 per day by October—10x the average operator break-even level—if tensions around the Strait of Hormuz re-escalate and the shipping market faces a prolonged recovery. The Iran war has reshaped the $80 billion liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) trade, with tankers now taking routes up to seven times longer than typical Persian Gulf supply routes, according to Bloomberg.
• U.S.-Israel air service is rebounding as carriers respond to stronger demand and an improved security environment. Delta plans to resume daily JFK-Tel Aviv flights on September 6, while United will restart twice-daily Newark-Tel Aviv service on September 8 and later resume San Francisco-Tel Aviv flights four times weekly in March 2027, according to Morgan Stanley.

Threats

• Chinese airlines’ 2Q26 results were in line for the Big Three, with a combined Rmb13 billion net loss amid higher fuel costs and softer domestic demand. Second quarter yield gains were not enough to offset 22%–30% unit-cost inflation. Morgan Stanley attributes the weakness to soft travel demand. Despite a modest summer traffic recovery, airlines have yet to regain pricing power, and margin pressure is likely to continue into the third quarter.
• According to Clarksons, China’s port congestion index, which measures the share of global fleet capacity waiting at ports or nearby anchorages, rebounded sharply last week and remained near record highs after a brief decline the previous week. The Panama Canal experienced severe drought-related capacity cuts, with El Niño reducing daily transits from 36 to 32 vessels starting in September 2026. Rising congestion at the Panama Canal has pushed wait times for unbooked vessels to as long as 11 days.
• High-speed rail remains a structural headwind for Chinese airlines, according to J.P. Morgan. Competition is particularly strong on routes under 500 miles. China Southern is responding by shifting capacity toward longer-haul services and developing air-rail connections. Higher fuel surcharges could further increase the risk of travelers choosing rail as they compare total airfares with rail prices.

Luxury Goods and International Markets

Strengths

• Ultra-luxury pricing power remains intact. Jaguar Land Rover announced that its first fully electric Range Rover will start at £154,070, or about $208,420, demonstrating continued willingness to position vehicles at exceptionally high price points.
• On September 2, Seabourn, the ultra-luxury cruise brand owned by Carnival Corporation, announced a 138-day 2029 World Cruise covering 58 destinations in 31 countries. Separately, Carnival Cruise Line launched its new Carnival Rewards loyalty program and an affiliated co-branded credit card on September 1. Together, these announcements suggest cruise operators remain focused on driving demand through premium experiences and customer loyalty initiatives rather than relying primarily on promotional activity.
• Ananti, a South Korean luxury hospitality and leisure company, gained approximately 11% over the past five trading days, making it the top performer in the S&P Global Luxury Index. Shares rallied, supported by the company’s latest quarterly results and signs of improving demand across its resort and hospitality portfolio.

Weaknesses

• Shein, a global online fast-fashion retailer, is down approximately 5.3% week-to-date following its Hong Kong listing. While share-price performance does not directly reflect consumer demand, the decline suggests investors remain cautious about growth prospects, competitive pressures, valuation and the outlook for value-oriented consumer spending.
• The official non-manufacturing PMI remained at 49.0, its weakest level since December 2022, while consumer-goods industries remained in contraction. Because Chinese services are primarily domestically oriented, the report indicates that domestic demand, including the environment supporting discretionary and aspirational luxury purchases, remained sluggish in August.
• Nio, a Chinese EC maker, declined approximately 13% over the past five trading days, making it the worst performer in the S&P Global Luxury Index. Shares fell amid concerns over intensifying competition in China’s EV market and investor disappointment following the company’s latest quarterly results.

Opportunities

• Gap’s new five-silhouette “GapBag” collection, designed by Reed Krakoff, former executive creative director of Coach, is scheduled to become available online and in select stores on September 8. The collection uses recognizable denim and logo design cues across totes, crossbody bags and other formats, offering an opportunity to capture accessible-luxury and fashion-driven spending at lower price points than traditional designer handbags.
• Tesla’s Cybercab launch and the growing adoption of autonomous ride-hailing services in cities such as Austin could create new opportunities for luxury brands. During this week’s Cybercab event in Austin, Tesla announced the start of public Cybercab rides, highlighting the shift of autonomous transportation from concept to commercial deployment.
• Lululemon shares are down about 52% year-to-date (YTD), but the company is taking steps to support a potential turnaround. Incoming CEO Heidi O’Neill is set to take over on September 8, while management increases marketing investments and focuses on strengthening its product offerings.

Threats

• Chinese consumer demand remains weak. While China’s manufacturing activity improved in August, the services PMI remained at 49.0 and consumer-goods industries stayed in contraction. This suggests consumers are still spending cautiously, which could weigh on luxury and discretionary companies with significant exposure to China.
• Macau gaming revenue declined 1.2% year-over-year (YoY) in August and remains approximately 10% below pre-pandemic levels, according to Bloomberg. The slower-than-expected recovery in Macau suggests discretionary spending among affluent Chinese consumers remains below historical levels, which could weigh on demand for luxury goods, premium travel and hospitality.
• Rising tensions between the United States and Iran, including increased military exchanges and attacks in the region, have pushed oil prices higher again and increased market volatility. Higher oil prices raise concerns about inflation and economic growth, creating uncertainty for investors. Sustained energy price increases can pressure consumer spending by reducing disposable income and lowering demand for non-essential goods and services.

Energy and Natural Resources

Strengths

• The best-performing commodity for the week was WTI crude oil, up 9.69%, as renewed U.S.-Iran fighting heightened supply concerns. Chinese lithium producers posted their strongest profits in three years as energy-storage demand accelerated. Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium each reported their strongest first-half net income in three years, supported by surging demand from the energy-storage sector. China’s spot lithium price climbed 22%, according to Bloomberg, reinforcing signs of improving fundamentals in the lithium market as battery-storage demand expands.
• Zinc rose as much as 2.8% to $3,990 per ton on the London Metal Exchange, reaching its highest level in more than four years. The rally was driven by tightening supply conditions, including Iranian ore shortages stemming from the Middle East conflict and mine disruptions in China, according to Bloomberg.
• Metallurgical coal prices rallied amid tightening supply concerns. Premium low-vol hard coking coal (PLV HCC) prices climbed to $270 per ton FOB Australia, up from $225 per ton in the first half of 2026. UBS attributed the sharp increase to stronger Chinese buying amid concerns over disruptions to domestic met-coal supply from prolonged safety inspections and potential disruptions to Mongolian imports.

Weaknesses

• The worst-performing commodity for the week was wheat, down 6.54%, as traders weighed an upcoming visit to Moscow and Ukraine by President Trump’s envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Airstrikes by Ukraine are expected to pause, potentially opening shipping routes if Russia reciprocates. This marks the first weekly decline in wheat prices after four consecutive weeks of gains.
• China’s metals sector faces pressure from weak steel demand and rising alumina imports. China’s steel rebar margins fell to a 28-year low in August amid weak construction demand, highlighting continued pressure on the country’s steel sector. Meanwhile, mainland China’s alumina imports in the first half of 2026 were nine times higher than in the first half of 2025 amid disruptions in the Persian Gulf, according to Bloomberg.
• Chile’s copper production fell to its lowest July level since 2011. Chile produced 403,424 metric tons of copper in July, down 9.8% from June and 9.4% from a year earlier, marking the country’s lowest output for the month of July since 2011. Winter storms disrupted mining operations and weighed on production in the world’s leading copper-producing country, according to Bloomberg.

Opportunities

• Neo Performance Materials entered into a partnership with France-based Carester to secure a multi-year supply of heavy rare earth oxides for magnet manufacturing in exchange for providing recycled magnet scrap for processing. The agreement could strengthen access to critical materials used in permanent magnets while supporting a more integrated rare earth recycling and supply chain in Europe, according to Dow Jones.
• Alcoa received $174 million to develop Australian gallium supply outside China. The U.S. Department of War will provide $174 million to Alcoa to build a gallium plant in Western Australia, supporting efforts to diversify critical mineral supply chains. China currently accounts for approximately 98% of global gallium production, highlighting the strategic importance of developing alternative sources.
• Larvotto Resources launched the Hillgrove antimony mine in New South Wales, targeting production equivalent to roughly 7% of global antimony demand. The company expects the mine to supply more than half of global antimony output not controlled by China. Larvotto becomes the second Australian antimony producer, helping diversify a critical mineral supply chain largely dominated by China and Russia.

Threats

• Pakistan rejected an emergency liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargo as prices surged amid a global supply crunch. Pakistan scrapped an emergency LNG tender after receiving a sole offer from BP at $27 per MMBtu, nearly three times pre-war spot levels. The offer was rejected as too expensive, illustrating how tightening LNG supplies and elevated prices are beginning to constrain purchasing ability in import-dependent markets, according to Bloomberg.
• Shipments of LNG from the Persian Gulf have effectively come to a standstill over the past two months as elevated geopolitical tensions continue to hinder shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. While crude oil traffic through the Strait has rebounded to its highest level in months, LNG flows remain severely disrupted, posing an ongoing risk to global gas supplies, according to Bloomberg.
• Depleted strategic reserves could drive oil prices higher as Hormuz supply disruptions persist. CLSA estimates that 70% of the more than 1 billion-barrel supply shortfall from Hormuz countries between March and July 2026 was offset by releases from strategic reserves in China, the U.S. and other OECD countries. With those reserves now significantly depleted and near-term supply relief unlikely, CLSA expects China, Korea and Japan could increase crude imports rather than continue drawing down inventories, potentially pushing oil prices higher over the next two to three months.

Bitcoin and Digital Assets

Strengths

• Bitcoin climbed back above $81,000 on September 3, rebounding sharply after falling below $76,500 a day earlier as escalating U.S.-Iran tensions rattled global markets. The rebound pushed Bitcoin above its 50-day moving average of roughly $77,000, while its 90-day correlation with gold reached its highest level since 2020. The swift recovery and stronger relationship with gold highlight Bitcoin’s resilience during periods of heightened macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty.

• A group of 21 major financial institutions, including Bank of America, Citi, Goldman Sachs and UBS, plans to jointly launch a U.S. dollar stablecoin for payments and digital-asset settlement in the first half of 2027, with other G7 currencies expected to follow. The move comes as the global stablecoin market has grown from roughly $200 billion to $303 billion since early 2025, underscoring the growing integration of blockchain-based payments into traditional finance.
• Robinhood Chain, Robinhood’s new crypto network built using Arbitrum’s technology stack, generated a record $1.92 million in revenue over 24 hours, while weekly trading volume surged 89.5% to $6.92 billion. More than two-thirds of the network’s $5.92 million in revenue over the past 30 days was generated in the latest week. The rapid growth highlights increasing adoption and monetization of blockchain infrastructure by mainstream financial platforms.

Weaknesses

• Solana fell roughly 4.5%, Ether declined 3.5% and XRP dropped 3% on September 2 as escalating U.S.-Iran tensions drove investors away from risk assets. Despite the subsequent market rebound, the CoinDesk 20 Index, which tracks 20 major digital assets, remains down roughly 16% year-to-date (YTD) and 24% over the past year. The declines highlight persistent weakness across the broader digital-asset market despite periods of short-term recovery.
• Investors committed roughly $1.1 billion to just eight new crypto venture funds in the first quarter of 2026, the lowest quarterly fund count since 2020, according to Galaxy Research data cited by CoinDesk. Later-stage companies captured 57% of deployed capital, while pre-seed investments accounted for only 19% of completed deals. The concentration of funding in more established companies highlights a tougher capital environment for early-stage crypto startups and could constrain investment in the next generation of digital-asset infrastructure.
• Crypto firms relying on temporary regulatory relief have until September 30 to apply for required financial-services licenses or meet other authorization requirements set by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC). Beginning October 1, noncompliant firms could face civil or criminal penalties, including fines of up to 10% of annual turnover. The tighter requirements could increase compliance costs and operational barriers for crypto businesses operating in Australia.

Opportunities

• The SEC proposed modernizing transfer-agent rules to allow blockchains to serve as official transaction records and is considering digital wallet addresses as potential investor identifiers. The agency will also hold a September 17 roundtable with major financial institutions to explore round-the-clock U.S. trading. The initiatives could support broader adoption of tokenized securities, on-chain settlement and blockchain infrastructure across traditional financial markets.
• Crypto exchange Bitget is in talks with major financial institutions, including BlackRock, to expand distribution of digital-asset products such as tokenized ETFs across Asia. Crypto transaction activity in the region grew 69% year-over-year (YoY) as of June 2025, while BlackRock estimates that a 1% allocation of Asian wealth to crypto could generate nearly $2 trillion in inflows. The discussions highlight the potential for crypto platforms to connect traditional asset managers with Asia’s growing digital-asset investor base.
• Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, made a strategic investment in tZERO and formed a partnership to advance infrastructure for tokenized securities. The collaboration combines ICE’s expertise in global markets, clearing and data with tZERO’s blockchain technology to support the issuance, trading and settlement of tokenized assets. The move reinforces growing institutional adoption of blockchain as traditional market operators explore 24/7 trading and on-chain financial infrastructure.

Threats

• OpenAI’s new Astra AI demonstrated the ability to autonomously identify vulnerabilities and develop working exploits, including discovering two previously unknown flaws and chaining vulnerabilities to gain root access. The system also achieved a 100% score on a benchmark involving known vulnerability exploitation. As autonomous AI reduces the time and expertise needed to execute sophisticated attacks, crypto exchanges, wallets and blockchain protocols could face increasingly advanced cybersecurity threats.
• Two Thai businessmen sued Tether, the company behind USDT, the world’s largest stablecoin, over the freezing of $42.4 million in USDT across 10 Ethereum addresses. The plaintiffs allege the tokens were frozen more than three months before U.S. authorities obtained a seizure warrant, while Tether has called the lawsuit baseless. The dispute could increase scrutiny of centralized stablecoin issuers’ authority to freeze assets and the protections available to token holders.
• China’s Credit Impulse fell to 20.84, its lowest level since 2008, signaling a sharp slowdown in the pace of new credit creation relative to the economy. The indicator has historically been associated with global manufacturing and risk-asset cycles, while major Bitcoin bottoms have coincided with subsequent recoveries in Chinese credit. Persistently weak liquidity conditions could weigh on global growth, investor risk appetite and Bitcoin despite its recent strength.

Defense and Cybersecurity

Strengths

• CrowdStrike teamed up with NVIDIA and OpenAI to integrate specialized cybersecurity models, including SafeMind, built on NVIDIA Nemotron, and GPT-5.6 Cyber, into its Falcon platform to govern AI agents and strengthen enterprise defenses. The partnership aims to counter machine-speed, AI-driven cyber threats by pitting offensive and defensive models against each other in a continuous, self-improving loop.

• AeroVironment (AVAV) secured a $464.8 million U.S. Army contract under the Enduring-High Energy Laser (E-HEL) program. Over the next few years, the company will deliver dozens of its LOCUST X3 laser weapon systems designed to counter Group 1–3 unmanned aircraft threats.
• SEMI Europe confirmed on September 1, 2026, that more than €43 billion has been mobilized under the European Chips Act and European Chips Act 2.0 to expand power semiconductor and advanced packaging fabs across the continent.

Weaknesses

• Egypt’s proposal to expand its Rafale fleet could signal a gradual shift away from U.S. defense platforms in favor of European alternatives. If similar procurement trends emerge in other export markets, U.S. defense manufacturers could face increasing competitive pressure overseas.
• U.S. defense manufacturers continue to face production capacity constraints, with Pentagon data indicating that replenishing critical missile stockpiles could take several years. Long lead times for systems such as Patriot, THAAD and Tomahawk missiles highlight ongoing challenges in scaling production to meet rising demand.
• In early August 2026, an explosive-laden drone struck the wing of a Ukrainian Antonov cargo plane at Germany’s Leipzig/Halle Airport without detonating, in what investigators suspect was a Russian sabotage operation targeting Western logistics. Following the investigation, Berlin is preparing to formally attribute the attack to Moscow and unveil new sanctions alongside broader European Union measures.

Opportunities

• The transition to next-generation AI chips is accelerating demand for hybrid bonding technology, as traditional solder-based packaging cannot efficiently support increasingly complex high-bandwidth memory (HBM) stacks. BE Semiconductor Industries is a leading supplier of die-to-wafer hybrid bonding equipment and is well positioned to benefit as chipmakers invest in advanced packaging solutions for AI applications.
• The U.S. Army is testing next-generation autonomous strike capabilities on the H-60M Black Hawk, successfully launching Altius-700M loitering munitions against stationary and moving targets. The development highlights growing demand for integrated drone and autonomous warfare systems.
• Driven by the transition to next-generation Vera Rubin (VR200/VR300) platforms and doubling average selling prices (ASPs), the output value of NVIDIA NVL72 rack systems is projected to surge 214% year-over-year (YoY) to more than $710 billion in 2027. To sustain this momentum and lock in long-term demand, tech giants NVIDIA and Google are increasingly expanding beyond chip supply by directly backing and financing large-scale data center infrastructure projects.

Threats

• Legal and security reviews on September 3, 2026, detailed CISA’s “Gold Eagle” automated vulnerability-sharing framework, establishing secure, machine-speed exploit telemetry exchanges across critical defense industrial base contractors.
• Kuwaiti air defense forces intercepted a combined salvo of Iranian ballistic missiles and one-way attack drones over Kuwaiti sovereign airspace on September 2, 2026, as regional defensive alert postures escalated across the northern Persian Gulf.
• The Russian Navy officially returned the heavy nuclear-powered guided missile cruiser Admiral Nakhimov to active service on September 1, 2026, following 27 years of modernization. The warship is equipped with Kalibr, Onyx and Zircon hypersonic missile launch systems.

Gold Market

This week gold futures closed the week at $4,479.00, down $50.90 per ounce, or 1.12%. Gold stocks, as measured by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, ended the week lower by 0.93%. The S&P/TSX Venture Index came in off 2.49%. The U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar fell 0.54%.

Strengths

• The best performing precious metal for the week was gold, but still down slightly by 1.12%. Gold weakened after robust U.S. labor market data strengthened the dollar and Treasury yields. However, the yellow metal remains resilient compared to other precious metals, while structural demand from central banks and improving ETF flows continues to provide longer-term support.

• Central banks continue to diversify reserves into gold. Uruguay added physical gold to its reserves for the first time in roughly three decades, while Bolivia continued accumulating domestically produced gold, highlighting ongoing interest in gold among Latin American central banks
• Some of the world’s largest asset managers have been rebuilding gold positions following the metal’s pullback earlier this year, citing its attractiveness as a portfolio hedge and confidence in the long-term outlook. Bloomberg reported that firms managing a combined $27 trillion in assets have largely maintained or increased their gold exposure despite ongoing uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s policy path.

Weaknesses

• The worst performing precious metal for the week was palladium, down 2.58%. Investor sentiment toward palladium remains weak, with ETF holdings continuing to decline and year-to-date holdings down more than 10%. The sustained outflows suggest limited investor conviction relative to other precious metals.
• Global bond yields climbed to their highest levels since 2008, while the U.S. dollar strengthened, creating headwinds for gold. Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, potentially limiting investor demand for bullion.
• Silver, platinum, and palladium ETF holdings continue to decline year-to-date, highlighting weaker investor participation across the broader precious-metals sector. Sustained outflows could weigh on sentiment toward the sector despite gold’s relative resilience.

Opportunities

• AI-related technologies are emerging as a new source of demand for platinum group metals, including platinum, ruthenium and iridium. According to Metals Focus, this trend could become increasingly important as hydrogen-related demand remains relatively limited, with electrolysers expected to account for only about 45,000 ounces of platinum consumption in 2026.
• Ned Davis Research’s “Debasement Trade Index” warns that a negative feedback loop could develop as foreign buyers step back from Treasuries, increasing financial repression and driving investors toward real assets such as gold. This shift could provide additional support for gold prices.
• According to BMO, Mexico’s Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (Semarnat) has authorized 150 mining permits, according to Fernando Aboitiz, head of the Ministry of Economy’s Extractive Activities Coordination Unit, who spoke at Mexico’s Mining Forum yesterday. Aboitiz said Semarnat is 85% through its permit backlog, while the National Water Commission is around 50% complete and the Ministry of Economy has cleared approximately 95% of permits. Mexico’s Sheinbaum administration inherited a large backlog of permit applications built up during the AMLO presidency (2018–2024), when there was effectively a moratorium on new concessions.

Threats

• Investor conviction remains a risk. Despite strong central bank demand and continued reserve accumulation, gold has not consistently responded to supportive economic signals. This could limit upside momentum if market participants begin to question the strength of traditional bullish drivers.
• Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has renewed calls for citizens to avoid non-essential gold purchases as the country seeks to curb import-driven pressure on its trade balance and currency. However, given gold’s longstanding role in household savings and cultural traditions, it remains uncertain how much these appeals will reduce demand.
• Although recent comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller tempered expectations for a September rate hike, traders have since increased the perceived likelihood of additional policy tightening. The shift in rate expectations has pressured gold, though the metal continues to show relative strength compared with other precious metals.
  
  

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Deutsche Lufthansa AG

Frontier Group Holdings Inc.

Cosco Shipping Holdings

United Airlines

Delta Air Lines

China Southern Airlines Co. Ltd.

Carnival Corporation

Neo Performance Materials

Larvotto Resources

BP PLC

CrowdStrike Holdings Inc.

Nvidia Corp.

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The Hang Seng Composite Index is a market capitalization-weighted index that comprises the top 200 companies listed on Stock Exchange of Hong Kong, based on average market cap for the 12 months. The Taiwan Stock Exchange Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all listed common shares traded on the Taiwan Stock Exchange. The Korea Stock Price Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all common shares and preferred shares on the Korean Stock Exchanges.

The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold and Silver Index (XAU) is a capitalization-weighted index that includes the leading companies involved in the mining of gold and silver. The U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index provides a general indication of the international value of the U.S. dollar. The S&P/TSX Canadian Gold Capped Sector Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index, whose equity weights are capped 25 percent and index constituents are derived from a subset stock pool of S&P/TSX Composite Index stocks. The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is a modified market capitalization weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold and silver. The S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index is a broad market indicator for the Canadian venture capital market. The index is market capitalization weighted and, at its inception, included 531 companies. A quarterly revision process is used to remove companies that comprise less than 0.05% of the weight of the index, and add companies whose weight, when included, will be greater than 0.05% of the index.

The S&P 500 Energy Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the energy sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the material sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Financials Index is a capitalization-weighted index. The index was developed with a base level of 10 for the 1941-43 base period. The S&P 500 Industrials Index is a Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the industrial sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the consumer discretionary sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Information Technology Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the information technology sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index is a Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the consumer staples sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Utilities Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the utilities sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Healthcare Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the healthcare sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Telecom Index is a Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the telecom sector as a subset of the S&P 500.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the most widely recognized price measures for tracking the price of a market basket of goods and services purchased by individuals. The weights of components are based on consumer spending patterns. The Purchasing Manager’s Index is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. The PMI index is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment. Gross domestic product (GDP) is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period, though GDP is usually calculated on an annual basis. It includes all private and public consumption, government outlays, investments and exports less imports that occur within a defined territory.

The S&P Global Luxury Index is comprised of 80 of the largest publicly traded companies engaged in the production or distribution of luxury goods or the provision of luxury services that meet specific investibility requirements.

Please consider carefully a fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. For this and other important information, obtain a fund prospectus by visiting our prospectus page or by calling 1-800-US-FUNDS (1-800-873-8637). Read it carefully before investing. Foreside Fund Services, LLC, Distributor. U.S. Global Investors is the investment adviser.

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