Jackson Hole and Other Macro Data on Tap: Key Takeaways for Investors
Membership required
Membership is now required to use this feature. To learn more:
View Membership BenefitsKey Takeaways for Investors
- Stocks have been resilient since the July jobs report, with interest rate cuts now not just a hope, but a legitimate expectation
- Jay Powell gives his annual Jackson Hole speech this Friday, the last of his term as Fed chair
- The path of interest rates may dictate capital markets activity over the remainder of 2025
July CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales are in the rearview mirror, and investors now look ahead to a trio of key potential macro volatility catalysts this week.
According to our Economic Calendar, with data licensed from Econoday Inc., minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July 29-30 meeting cross the wires at 2 p.m. ET today, August 20th. It doesn’t always move stocks and bonds, but last month’s FOMC gathering (which resulted in no change to the policy rate) was the first in 32 years to feature two dissenters. What’s more, former Fed governor Adriana Kugler did not cast a vote in the 9-2 decision.1
Economic Events This Week
Today’s minutes could include nuggets from Governor Chris Waller, seen as a leading contender to succeed Chair Powell. His dovish stance, calling for an immediate interest rate cut, was said to be vindicated by some Fed watchers in the wake of the July nonfarm payrolls report that came in much weaker than expected. After last week’s CPI data was absorbed, investors largely shifted from hoping for a resumption in Fed easing to expecting easing, and that has key impacts for both stock prices and capital markets activity. More on that to come.
Thursday’s data slate is busy. Our Economic Calendar shows that weekly jobless claims hit the tape in the premarket, along with the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s Manufacturing Index. Initial and Continuing claims are “hard” data, while the Philly Fed gauge is “soft” survey data—both help investors suss out signal from noise. But what could be more market-moving is the S&P Global Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) readings.
This is a first look at August PMIs, and they come amid record-high stock prices but also steeper tariff rates. The latter could be more impactful to business executives as they navigate what’s now an 18.6% US effective tariff rate, according to The Budget Lab from Yale University.2 Keep in mind that we don’t get the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) version of the PMIs until early September.
We buried the lead. This week is all about Fed Chair Powell’s speech in the shadows of the mountains of the Grand Teton National Park. Yes, it’s Jackson Hole time. Finance data junkies and macro mavens will parse Powell’s missive, and this one could be a dovish pivot from his more balanced press conference back on July 30.
While below last week’s peak, the odds of a September rate cut are elevated at 85%.3 Assuming the outgoing Fed chief is in line with bond traders, Friday morning’s speech should open the door to the FOMC’s first quarter-point ease of the year. The inflation backdrop is still concerning–look no further than the July PPI data–so Powell may avoid offering direct rate-cut signals.
Painful Powell? Jolly Jay? Maybe Somewhere in Between
Powell's speech on the economic outlook is scheduled for 10 a.m. ET on August 22nd.4 Recall it was three years ago when he warned Americans that a period of “pain” was in store as the Fed combatted what had been a 40-year high in CPI inflation.5 Stocks plunged even before his eight-minute address finished, ultimately leading to a bear-market bottom in the S&P 500 two months later.
The vibes are different today. The S&P 500 has returned 60%, dividends included, since Jackson Hole three years ago.6 While it’s true that investors remain skeptical, they are also a lot wealthier, thanks to the AI-fueled bull market and record-high corporate earnings.
Yes, we’ve come a long way, but what does the future hold? Nobody knows, but we can make some educated guesses based on monetary policy’s path.
Capital Markets Are Closely Watching the Fed
First, according to our IPO data, licensed from IPOScoop, the IPO market is booming—even during what’s often a slow summer for equity unlocks. It’s possible that a pickup in go-public activity sparks after Labor Day, and names like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic could land on the NYSE or Nasdaq before long.
Elsewhere, StubHub may IPO under the ticker STUB this quarter after its early-year delay. And rumors now swirl that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could relaunch as IPOs. A trend lower in borrowing costs (so long as economic growth hangs in there) would be a tailwind.
IPO Count Trending Higher
Cheaper interest rates might also fuel the M&A arena, which has had a decent summer but has not captured the awe of investors like 2025’s IPO winners. Equity or cash financing is, of course, an option for today’s large-cap companies that boast strong balance sheets and lofty stock prices. Additionally, modest Treasury rates and tight credit spreads are conducive to deals inked with debt.
The upshot? Bankers could be busy when they get back from August holiday.
M&A Trends Still Dogging It
Multinational corporations might simply decide to tap capital markets for debt and equity to invest in long-term projects. The One Big, Beautiful Bill Act’s (OBBBA) full-expensing provision incentivizes companies to boost their capex, which bodes well for US GDP growth over the balance of the year and beyond.
There’s no free lunch, though, and a sudden adrenaline rush from capital investment may stoke inflation. So, it all comes back to Fed policy.
NVIDIA Rounds Out August
Jay (Powell) is the focus this week, but Jensen (Huang) takes center stage next Wednesday night when NVIDIA (NVDA) reports Q2 results. Shares may swing significantly after the earnings print...and before it.
On the conference front, NVIDIA, Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta Platforms (META), and Broadcom (AVGO) are slated to present at the Hot Chips 2025 conference in Palo Alto, CA, from August 24 to 26; tech investors should be on watch for potential volatility early next prior to the NVIDIA release.
Big Tech Events in the Queue
- August 24 - Hot Chips 2025 Conference (Presenting: AVGO, NVDA, MSFT, META, GOOGL)
- August 27 - NVDA Earnings Date
- August 28 - Deutsche Bank Technology Conference 2025 (Presenting: MSFT)
- September 4 - AVGO Earnings Date
- September 5 - IFA Berlin Conference (Presenting: NVDA)
- September 9/10 - Goldman Sachs Communacopia Technology Conference 2025 (Presenting: MSFT, GOOGL)
- September 12 - IBC 2025 Conference (Presenting: NVDA)
- September 16 - SRS 60th Annual Meeting 2025 Conference (Presenting: NVDA)
- October 2 - TSLA Q3 2025 Production Interim Financial Report
The Bottom Line
There’s plenty of macro data on tap over this week’s final three trading days, culminating with Powell’s annual address from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. The prospect of lower interest rates has reinvigorated the stock market lately, but the next move may hinge on what Jay delivers.
A message from Advisor Perspectives and VettaFi: To learn more about this and other topics, check out some of our webcasts.
1 Trump says he will pick a 'temp' replacement for Fed's Kugler in days, Reuters, Andrea Shalal, Jeff Mason, August 6, 2025, https://www.reuters.com
2 State of U.S. Tariffs: August 7, 2025, The Budget Lab, August 7, 2025, https://budgetlab.yale.edu
3 FedWatch, CME Group, August 19, 2025, https://www.cmegroup.com
4 Calendar, The Federal Reserve, August 19, 2025, https://www.federalreserve.gov/
5 Powell warns of ‘some pain’ ahead as the Fed fights to bring down inflation, CNBC, Jeff Cox, August 26, 2022, https://www.cnbc.com
6 SPXTR, StockCharts, August 19, 2025, https://schrts.co
Copyright © 2025 Wall Street Horizon, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy, distribute, sell or modify this document without Wall Street Horizon's prior written consent. This information is provided for information purposes only. Neither TMX Group Limited nor any of its affiliated companies guarantees the completeness of the information contained in this publication, and we are not responsible for any errors or omissions in or your use of, or reliance on, the information. This publication is not intended to provide legal, accounting, tax, investment, financial or other advice and should not be relied upon for such advice. The information provided is not an invitation to purchase securities, including any listed on Toronto Stock Exchange and/or TSX Venture Exchange. TMX Group and its affiliated companies do not endorse or recommend any securities referenced in this publication. This publication shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor may there be any sale of any securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or jurisdiction. TMX, the TMX design, TMX Group, Toronto Stock Exchange, TSX, and TSX Venture Exchange are the trademarks of TSX Inc. and are used under license. Wall Street Horizon is the trademark of Wall Street Horizon, Inc. All other trademarks used in this publication are the property of their respective owners.
Membership required
Membership is now required to use this feature. To learn more:
View Membership BenefitsSponsored Content
Upcoming Virtual Events View All
